Bihar Caste Census and Quota Increase: Nitish Kumar’s six political goals

Bihar CM Nitish Kumar

Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s decision to increase the OBC quota is expected to give him political mileage ahead of the general elections 2024 and cement the Mahagathbandhan’s (MGB) prospects in the 2025 state elections.

The Bihar government has given a nod to increase reservation from the current 60 percent to 75 percent, which includes 43 percent for OBCs, 20 percent for SCs, 2 percent for STs and 10 percent for EWS. His government is likely to introduce a Bill in the current Assembly session.

The decision is backed by a caste and socio economic census which showed that OBCs comprise 63 percent of Bihar’s population and that a quarter of the population earn less than Rs 6,000 per month. The decision could face legal challenges similar to other states who have attempted to overshoot the 50 percent cap set by the Supreme Court.

However, Nitish Kumar, seems to have covered his tracks as the decision is backed by a survey/census and the poor plight of EBCs could be taken as exceptional circumstances as mentioned in the judgment on quota for Marathas.

Aims of Nitish Kumar:

1. Trap And Checkmate BJP

The decision aims to trap the BJP and paint it as anti-backward and anti-reservation. His decision has put the state BJP unit in a quandary as the central government has rejected a nationwide caste census.

The state BJP which opposes Nitish-Lalu alliance tooth and nail has been forced to back his decision. This will be used by Nitish and INDIA bloc to highlight the contradiction in BJP and force the central leadership to take a stand on nationwide caste census.

2. Emerge As VP Singh 2.0

At a national level, socialist forces have been weakened with ex Janata Dal constituents like Samajwadi Party, Rashtriya Lok Dal, Rashtriya Janata Dal, Janata Dal (Secular), Indian National Lok Dal (INLD), losing their 1990-2000 era sheen. Nitish wants to take ahead the legacy of ex PM VP Singh and become a champion of OBC rights.

Nitish has become the first CM in the country to release caste census findings and increase quota, taking the “jitni abadi utna haq” demand to its logical conclusion. PM Manmohan Singh and CM Siddaramaiah who have conducted similar surveys have dared not to release the findings as reservation is a sensitive issue.

3. Revive Mandal

Nitish Kumar hopes to revive Mandal and use it as a counter to Kamandal. With the Ram Mandir inauguration slated for January 22 next year, the BJP could take credit for the construction and claim fulfilling its long time promise. In a Hindutva-charged environment, the BJP hopes to gain advantage in Uttar Pradesh which is considered as holding the keys to power.

Nitish and allies of the INDIA bloc will try to convince the OBCs that the BJP — which had in its early years leaned towards upper castes — is using the OBCs just for their political gain without giving them what is rightfully theirs.

4. Prevent INC From Taking Credit 

Nitish lately has been critical of Congress with respect to its dilly dallying on the INDIA bloc. He has accused the Congress of wasting crucial months focusing on state elections, while these could have been used to finalise seat distribution, campaign and manifesto.

He is also cautiously treading the path as the OBC census, which was his idea, seems to have been hijacked by the Congress party, especially Rahul Gandhi. Congress on all platforms is raising the issue, promising caste census in its manifesto for state elections, and has hijacked Nitish Kumar’s idea. He is wary of Congress, the bigger brother nationally taking credit for his efforts on this front.

5. Ensure JDU Retains 16 LS MPs

JD(U) won 16 of the 17 seats it contested in alliance with the BJP in 2019. To have any say at national level he needs to repeat that performance. Crossing over to MGB does compensate in some form the loss of BJP upper caste and OBC votes, as it gets replaced by Muslim-Yadav vote of the RJD. However, the wily Nitish knows that 25 percent of party votes were on account of the Modi factor which is difficult to compensate for.

Further, BJP which gets lower OBC support in Vidhan Sabha polls, gets a leg up in general elections, as Modi hails from the OBC community. Nitish hopes the increase in quota would consolidate the OBC votes in MGB favor, help his party win a sizable number of seats and lady luck would take care of the rest like Deve Gowda in 1996.

6. Ensure MGB Wins 2025 State Polls

The state elections to Bihar are due in Oct-Nov 2025. That could be Nitish Kumar’s last election as he would be nearing 75 years of age at that time. MGB defeated BJP in the 2015 state elections convincingly. Nitish hopes with quota increase the OBC-EBC plus MY-Mahadalit alliance will help MGB romp home again with flying colours.

In conclusion, Nitish aims to emerge as a glue of socialist forces and strengthen his claim for the top post. The increase in quota in Bihar could be seen as his last electoral gambit. He also wishes to make caste census a national issue, imprinting his name forever in national politics as the person who gave the backwards their due rights.

Amitabh Tiwari is a former corporate and investment banker-turned political strategist and commentator. Twitter: @politicalbaaba. Views are personal, and do not represent the stance of this publication.