Israel-Hamas conflict: Technical analysts on the key levels to watch out for

On Saturday, the Palestinian militant group Hamas launched a multi-pronged attack on Israel — by land, sea and air, using paragliders. The attack came hours after thousands of rockets were sent from Gaza into Israel. As Israel declares a 'state of war' on Hamas, financial markets may not be entirely spared.

While it is unclear how prolonged this war could become and what could be the economic repercussions, oil prices have shot up nearly 5 percent. Moneycontrol spoke to technical analysts on levels to watch out for in Nifty and Bank Nifty today.

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Dinesh Nagpal, Technical Analyst

For Nifty, the level is 19,550 which is very crucial. As long as it's above 19,550, plus or minus 25 points if it sustains above that then it's fine. It will discount the impact and try to push its way up. There will be short covering of above 19,725 today.

For Bank Nifty it is 44,200. That's a very crucial level. If it sustains 44,200, if it sustains above that, it will discount this move. The short covering is there above 44,750.

Also read: Markets may open in red as Israel-Hamas war intensifies, but recover later

Milan Vaishnav, Founder, Gemstone Equity Research & Advisory Services

With Nifty, if we look at the weekly charts, we have seen that over the last week, Nifty rebounded from the 20-week moving average, which is at around 19,335-odd levels. So, we see that even if there is some corrective retracement once again in the markets 19,300 to 19,325 should work out as good support for Nifty, and even on the daily charts, we have maintained a good pattern support at around 19,250 levels, which I think one of the pattern supports again. So 19,250 to 300 is one of the most important levels that we need to watch for Nifty.

So long as Nifty is above that, all we would see would be some corrective retracement, but no major breakdowns on the charts. Only below this zone, we will see the market getting incrementally weaker. But so long as it is above this point, all you can expect is some broad-range oscillations in the market and no major breakdown.

For Nifty Bank, 44,200 was the level earlier where we saw the Nifty Bank breaking out for the first time a couple of months back and from that point, we had seen that index traveling around 2,000-2,200 odd-points from from those levels. So, around 44,200 and  44,000. This 200-point zone is a major support area for Nifty Bank. And if we see that if this zone is violated, then Nifty Bank will get incrementally weaker. And if you look at the overall technical structure of Nifty Bank, I feel that it will relatively underperform the Nifty for some time.

On the upside, the resistance levels have been dragged down lower between 44, 600- 44,700 zone. If these levels are violated, we will see this index getting incrementally weaker, and extract some relative underperformance from Nifty Bank as compared to Nifty at least towards the immediate short term.

Also read: Stocks sink across Middle East as Israel goes to war with Hamas

Viraj Vyas, Technical and Derivatives Analyst, Ashika Stock Broking

A key concern today will be crude oil price.

The Nifty concluded the session higher at 19,654 as it closed just below the 21- day EMA (19,662). The 21-day EMA displays a downward slope, which doesn't augur well for bullish momentum and is acting as a strong resistance. The Index needs to stage a price-intense move above the 19,700-19,750 zone for a breather with immediate support seen at 19,550 level. Range expansion and price intensity above 19,750 mark will be key in setting the tone for fresh bullish momentum.

Bank Nifty ended the session higher at 44,360, but remains below the 21850- day EMA (44,704 & 44,687 respectively). Both averages are sloping downwards which doesn't augur well for bullish momentum. The immediate resistance for the Index is seen at 44,700 while critical resistance is now at the 21-day EMA. On the flipside, immediate support is seen at 43,250 level while critical support is at 43,800, failing to hold the same might trigger a deeper selloff.

Rohit Srivastava, Founder and Market Analyst, Indiacharts

For Nifty, the intra-day support levels are 19,336 and 19,584. This is where we expect support to come in. For Bank Nifty, support levels will be 44,201-44,355.

On resistance levels, for Nifty, on the upside, it would be 19,726 and 19,675. For Bank Nifty it would 44,500 and 44,755.

Rajesh Palviya, Head- Technical Research, Axis Securities

Last week, we have seen some short covering action in Nifty as well as in the Bank Nifty. Nifty comfortably held above 19,600 level for the weekly closing basis. If at all if it gets any dip towards 19550, 19500 zone that that is again important support area on the downside for new-term setup. If at all Nifty manages to hold above 19,500 level on a closing basis then I think there would be again buying interest in the market and we may see pullback action from those level. If you get dips around 19,550, one can look to buy with the stop loss of 19,500 and on the higher side last week 19650 was the close but again if at all Nifty crosses about 19700 then there would be another round of short covering we can see in the market and possibly Nifty can inch up further higher to 19,800.

For Bank Nifty we are now trading above 44,000 level. So 44,000 is the important level to watch for in the gap down opening if at all Bank Nifty manages to hold 44,000 level then again we may see some support buying action to initiate around those level and then Bank Nifty may also show some pullback action. On the high side the major short covering action for Bank Nifty will trigger above 44,500, 44,600. if it crosses those level then this rally can extend. So, 44,600 is the higher side resistance for the day and on the downside 44,000 is the important key support area in the decline.

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