The comeback challenge: Uddhav Thackeray's relevance in post-election Maharashtra

Uddhav’s political trajectory reflects his ability to navigate crises since assuming leadership of the Shiv Sena in 2003.

History shows that it is unwise to write off a politician based on a single political debacle. Indian politics is replete with examples of defeated leaders making remarkable comebacks to reestablish their authority. For Uddhav Thackeray, the setback in the Vidhan Sabha elections is undoubtedly hard to digest, but the critical question before him is how to stay relevant in Maharashtra politics.

Until the eve of the Vidhan Sabha election results, leaders of the Shiv Sena (UBT) and Congress were publicly debating over who would assume the Chief Minister's position if the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) secured a majority. However, the results revealed that none of the MVA constituents secured the required 28 seats to claim even the Leader of Opposition post in the Vidhan Sabha. Uddhav’s Shiv Sena, which won the most seats in the MVA (20), still falls short by eight.

Uddhav’s political trajectory reflects his ability to navigate crises since assuming leadership of the Shiv Sena in 2003. He has endured rebellions from leaders like Narayan Rane and Raj Thackeray. In 2009, Raj Thackeray’s MNS emerged as a significant threat to the Shiv Sena, even being dubbed the "new Shiv Sena." Despite the 2022 rebellion led by Eknath Shinde, Uddhav remained resilient, performing well in the last Lok Sabha elections despite losing the party’s official name and symbol. However, the recent Vidhan Sabha debacle has jeopardized his party's existence.

Political analysts believe Uddhav must address several issues to restore his party's relevance. His strategy of portraying himself as a victim of betrayal and branding Shinde and his allies as traitors has not resonated with voters. He didn’t get their sympathy as expected. Similarly, the narrative accusing the Mahayuti government of favoring Gujarat over Maharashtra failed to gain traction.

Moving forward, Uddhav must craft fresh narratives and focus on issues that resonate with the electorate. He must also relook at his image of somebody who puts roadblocks on Dharavi redevelopment, the Metro Line-3 car shed, the bullet train, Wadhawan Port and so on.
Uddhav’s shift towards a semi-secular image, initiated by joining the MVA in 2019, has garnered Muslim support but left the party ideologically adrift. While Eknath Shinde’s faction emphasizes its adherence to Bal Thackeray’s Hindutva ideals, Uddhav’s Shiv Sena has distanced itself from hostility towards Muslims. Uddhav must decide whether to embrace a fully secular stance akin to the Congress or NCP or revert to the militant Hindutva identity championed during Bal Thackeray’s era.

Another challenge for Uddhav is retaining his loyalists. Politicians often gravitate towards factions with better prospects, and defections to rival parties may occur. Maintaining party unity will be critical.

The upcoming municipal corporation elections in cities like Mumbai, Thane, Pune, Nashik, and Sambhajinagar present another significant challenge. The Shiv Sena has ruled the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) for three decades, mostly in alliance with the BJP. However, with the Shiv Sena now divided and Shinde’s faction emboldened by recent successes, reclaiming dominance in the BMC will be an uphill battle. A glimmer of hope for Uddhav lies in the fact that his party won more seats in Mumbai (10) than Shinde’s faction (6). Buoyed by the success in Vidhan Sabha, the Mahayuti alliance is likely to organise elections of the local bodies soon.