Rice output may fall 13 % to 96.7 million tonnes in kharif this year: Origo Commodities

Rice production may fall by 13 per cent to 96.7 million tonnes in kharif season this year due to fall in paddy acreage amid deficient rains in some parts of the country, according to Origo Commodities’ initial estimates.

Earlier this week, the agriculture ministry released the first advance estimates for kharif season of 2022-23 crop year (July-June). As per the government data, rice production is likely to decline by 6 per cent to 104.99 million tonnes in the kharif season this year as against 111.76 million tonnes in kharif season of last year.

Established in 2011, Gurugram-based Origo Commodities is a agri fin-tech company focused on commodity supply chain, post harvest management, trade and finance.

This is the first time the company has released the estimates for kharif crops. It will come up with a final estimate in November 2022. In a statement, Origo Commodities said that rice production in kharif season for 2022-23 ”is seen lower by 13 per cent y-o-y at 96.7 million tonnes against 111.17 million tonnes in 2021-22”.

”Paddy acreage has declined by around 9 per cent compared to last year while yield is projected 5 per cent lower from the last year. The crop yield had adversely impacted due to deficient rain in Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal and Bihar,” the company said.

As per the latest estimate of Origo Commodities, total kharif production for the crop year 2022-23 is estimated at 640.42 million tonnes, which is 2 per cent lower than the same period last year.

Total kharif production is estimated lower due to likely fall in the production of paddy, groundnut, castor, jute, and sugarcane, the statement said. Origo projects that cotton production may increase 8.5 per cent to 34.2 million bales (of 170 kg each) against 31.5 million bales in 2021-22, while soyabean output may rise 4.5 per cent at 12.48 million tonnes against 11.95 million tonnes in 2021-22.

Soybean acreage is almost flat compared to last year, while yield is estimated to gain by 4.7 per cent from the last year given the favourable rainfall distribution in the key soybean-producing states this year.