Power play: What explains JD(U)'s renewed demand to declare Nitish Kumar as Bihar CM face?

The Janata Dal (United) led by Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar has demanded that the NDA declare him as the CM face ahead of Bihar elections. (File/PTI)

The Lok Sabha elections, which came as a reality check for the Bharatiya Janata Party at the Centre, saw the JD(U) emerge as an crucial ally for the saffron party at the Centre. The BJP, under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, became dependent on allies for the first time since assuming power at the Centre in 2014. The JD(U) and Chandrababu Naidu's Telugu Desam party emerged as the kingmakers with BJP rewarding these states suitably in the two Budgets that followed.

The months that followed, however, saw a dramatic shift in the power balance as the BJP pulled off a victory in Haryana less than three months after the Lok Sabha debacle and followed it up with a stunner in Maharashtra. The Delhi elections that saw the BJP return to power in the national capital after 27 years further consolidated BJP's national footprint, while snatching another key battleground from the Opposition's clutches.

The BJP's victory in Delhi, preceded by the party's absolute dominance in Maharashtra, has led to an apparent sense of unease in the Nitish camp. The BJP's handling of the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena, virtually overruling the former CM's demand raised to retain the position of chief minister, made the JD(U) apprehensive of the events likely to unfold if the Bihar elections were to go the Maharashtra way.

So far, the BJP has allowed Nitish and the JD(U) to remain as the face of the alliance. However, it maintains that the final decision on who will be the chief minister will only be decided after the Bihar polls with the tally being a crucial factor in arriving at a decision.

The party has previously offered chief ministership to Nitish despite the JD(U) being the junior partner in the state. In 2020, the BJP won 84 seats compared to the JD(U)'s 48 but conceded the CM's chair to Nitish. The unease that resulted is cited as among the primary reasons behind Nitish switching sides to the Mahagathbandhan, before returning to the BJP again ahead of the Lok Sabha elections last year.

The BJP, wary of a similar fallout, could be looking to tread with greater caution this time around in case the results are similar to the 2020 elections. This appears to have left the JD(U), which is aware of the BJP's thinking, restless with no announcement yet on the CM's face.

So, when Prime Minister Narendra Modi heaped praise on Nitish, even referring to him as "Bihar ke laadle mukhya mantri (beloved chief minister of Bihar)", he left the JD(U) feeling let down as the expectation was that the Prime Minister would end the debate over the CM face by naming Nitish as the contender.

It was perhaps this unease that led to Nitish's son Nishant Kumar demanding that the BJP declare Nitish as the CM face ahead of the Bihar elections. However, he was quickly advised by senior Bihar BJP leaders to wait for the "appropriate time", signalling that a decision on who will be chief minister will be arrived at only after the polls conclude.

There is another reason behind growing discomfort within a section of the JD(U). The recent cabinet expansion carried out by the NDA signaled the BJP's dominance within the alliance, leaving many in the JD(U) feeling that it had been left on a weaker wicket.

Of the 7 new ministers (all from BJP) inducted into the Cabinet, two belong to the Kurmi and Kushwaha communities. These are the two caste groups are seen as key caste groups that form Nitish Kumar's own support base, causing significant concern within the JD(U).

For now, the BJP has pulled up its socks for the Bihar election, the only major scheduled electoral event in states this year. Having tasted success in Haryan, Maharashtra and Delhi, the party plans to replicate the model in preparing for Bihar, meaning that the state will witness a host of ministers and BJP leaders from across the country descend as polls near.

Union ministers, MPs, MLAs, and BJP office-bearers from across the country will hit the ground running with specific responsibilities designed for every leader keeping in mind their caste, community and geographical location.

Elections in Bihar are due in October-November this year with the NDA government eying a second consecutive victory in the state. The NDA is currently in power in the state led by JDU chief Nitish Kumar as the chief minister. The strength of the Bihar assembly is 243 seats, and the BJP-led NDA has 138. The party has set a target of the NDA winning over 200 seats in the Assembly. Currently, the BJP is the single largest party with 84 MLAs.