Lok Sabha Polls 2024: Does Mayawati’s decision to go solo mark a last-ditch effort to revive Bahujan politics?

Political observers reason that Mayawati must realise that Dalit politics is no longer about just vote shares and election tactics

The Bahujan Samajwadi Party’s (BSP) decision to go solo in the upcoming parliamentary polls has reignited a debate that was frequently doing the rounds in the political lexicon. Should BSP supremo Mayawati’s decision to lead an independent electoral fight be seen as a desperate attempt to galvanise the Dalit-Bahujan movement and, in turn, revive the fortunes of the party — which have clearly plunged to a new low with successive routs in Uttar Pradesh assembly elections and below-par performance in the previous parliamentary elections.

Celebrating her 68th birthday, Mayawati on Monday said there is no question of her retiring from politics and that her party will fight the upcoming Lok Sabha polls independently.

It is in this context that one is forced to look at the acceptability and the future of independent Dalit-Bahujan politics — especially at a time when every political party is striving to give adequate space to Dalits in their politics.

The missing Bahujan consciousness

According to early Bahujan formulation, the term Bahujan included 85 percent of India’s population – Scheduled Castes, Scheduled Tribes, Other Backward Classes (OBC) and minorities. Everyone except Brahmins and forward castes. Based on this calculation, the BSP and its leaders tried to instil a Bahujan consciousness in the masses and succeeded in forming the government in Uttar Pradesh a few times.

The biggest failure of the BSP’s Bahujan politics, which is invariably leading to its shrinking influence, is its inability to add more caste groups to build numerical strength for political gain. The recent downfall of the BSP in the Uttar Pradesh state elections is a manifestation of the failure of Bahujan politics.

Both Jatavs and non-Jatavs have largely backed the BSP since its inception, except during the peak of the Ram Mandir movement. However, since 2014, the BJP has made a significant dent into BSP’s non-Jatav vote bank, accusing Mayawati of favouring her ‘jaati’ in positions within the party and in cornering most reservation jobs and schemes benefits.

With 54 percent of the Dalit population Jatavs dominate the SC vote. Mayawati hails from this community. Jatavs are followed by Pasis (16 percent) and Dhobis (6 percent). Pasis, Dhobis, Koris, Khatiks, Dhanuks and other SCs are called non-Jatavs and account for 46 percent of the Dalit population.

The problem of declining vote share

In the 2022 polls, the BSP won one seat and had a vote share of 12.9 percent. Its vote share tanked nearly 10 percentage points to 12.9 percent, the lowest since the 1993 Assembly polls, when the party contested its first-ever election in Uttar Pradesh, winning 64 of 167 seats where it had fielded candidates. Even in the 2014 Lok Sabha election, when the party won no seats, its vote share was nearly 20 percent.

The way forward for Dalit politics

Political observers reason that Mayawati must realise that Dalit politics is no longer about just vote shares and election tactics. The 68-year-old matriarch must not squander away all the gains won by the Dalits and other oppressed communities since Independence.

Changing caste aspirations

Ajay Gudavarthy, associate professor, Centre for Political Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, opined that what Mayawati has to offer in terms of representation and protection is no longer attractive due to changing caste aspirations. “The BJP has accommodated a lot of these demands from caste groups that were not as rigid when the Bahujan movement started in the 1980s.

Added to this, BSP has lost considerable ground as it has not done anything to reinvent itself. Grassroots mobilisation and efforts to include various caste groups haven’t taken off at all. This inability of the party to engage grassroots leadership led to a decline in their organisational capacities and electoral performance,” reiterated Gudavarthy.

Gudavarthy also believes that there is a processual change among Dalit communities (non-Jatavs) due to the influence of democracy, state-led affirmative actions and rising developmental desires. As a result, the socio-political profile of Dalit communities has changed rapidly over time.

He added that if a monolithic Dalit-Bahujan movement needs to retain itself, there needs to be a new direction to political mobilisation and transformative political programmes and actions.

Growth of independent Dalit political outfits

What was once a monolithic movement under the broad umbrella of the BSP or the Bahujan movement has now been taken over by independent Dalit political parties. They have contributed a lot in leading to the rise of a politically aspirant section among marginalised communities, and have failed to provide sufficient political space to it, which is why there is a quest for political space in other political parties. Individual ambitions and a growing impatience to gain political power are leading to a drift away from Dalit led political parties.

Faced with an existential crisis, Lok Sabha 2024 will be a litmus test for the 68-year-old Bahujan matriarch.