Lok Sabha election results 2019 | It's a bumpy road ahead for regional parties

File image: West Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee (center left) and SP chief Akhilesh Yadav (center right)

The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) on May 23 registered a massive victory in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, to retain power.

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led alliance won over 350 Lok Sabha seats. The saffron party itself won over 300 seats — its highest individual tally ever.

The Indian National Congress secured 52 seats in the Lower House, up from 44 that it had won in 2014. Although it faced an embarrassing defeat, the United Progressive Alliance (UPA), boosted by a strong electoral performance by Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), increased its tally to 92 from what was 60 in 2014.

Non-aligned and regional parties such as Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress, N Chandrababu Naidu’s Telugu Desam Party (TDP) and the Samajwadi Party (SP)-Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) alliance also faced defeat.

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Drubbing at the ballots

TMC’s tally fell from 34 to 22 seats in the Lok Sabha. The TDP, which had won 16 seats in 2014 as part of the NDA, managed to win just one this time. The much-talked about SP-BSP ‘Mahagathbandhan’ failed to dent the BJP-Apna Dal alliance significantly in Uttar Pradesh.

NDA’s tally in UP came down from 73 out of 80 seats to 64. However, the alliance-winning 64 seats despite the arithmetic being stacked against them, is being seen as a victory in itself.

Odisha Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik’s Biju Janata Dal (BJD) managed to not only hold on to a significant number of Lok Sabha seats, but also retain the state Assembly. This gave Patnaik a consecutive fifth term in office.

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What lies ahead

The situation that all of these major regional, non-aligned parties are in are different. These parties could thus react differently to situations going forward.

The biggest challenge for these parties would be to keep its flock together. Party cadre and leaders may feel compelled to abandon the party if the going gets tough.

NDA’s vote share in Uttar Pradesh breached the 50 percent-mark in this election. This would mean that communities that traditionally voted for the SP and BSP had not entirely voted for these parties as a bloc.

Both SP and BSP have said their ‘Mahagathbandhan’ was not just for this general election, but also for the next Uttar Pradesh Assembly election that will happen in early 2022. Akhilesh Yadav and Mayawati’s strategy remains unclear.

The BJP, having made deep inroads into West Bengal’s politics, is believed to be already preparing for the Assembly elections slated to happen in 2021.

At an election rally on April 29, PM Modi had claimed that 40 TMC Members of Legislative Assembly (MLAs) were in touch with him and would desert their party once the BJP wins the general elections.

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Chandrababu Naidu’s TDP not only lost most of its Lok Sabha seats, but also got decimated in the simultaneous Assembly election.

YS Jagan Mohan Reddy’s YSR Congress Party (YSRCP) secured a super majority in the Legislative Assembly. Jagan Mohan is believed to have cordial relations with PM Modi, in stark contrast to Naidu’s relations with the prime minister.

In the last five years, Andhra Pradesh has witnessed lawmakers defecting from YSRCP in favour of the TDP. Now, Naidu would be concerned with potential defections.

Meanwhile, now in his fifth term, Patnaik will have to keep up the momentum and deliver on key promises. A strong BJP Opposition coupled with anti-incumbency could pose a significant threat to his government if he falters.