Leaked memo reveals Pentagon’s bold gamble: Prioritising China, scaling back elsewhere

Similarly, the memo calls for Taiwan to significantly increase its military budget, aligning with Trump’s long-standing position that U.S. allies should contribute more to their own defense.

In a major reorientation of U.S. defense policy, the Pentagon is shifting its focus towards deterring a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan while reducing commitments in Europe and the Middle East, according to a classified internal guidance memo signed by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. The document, which The Washington Post reviewed, signals a sharp pivot in U.S. military strategy, with significant implications for global security.

The memo, titled the "Interim National Defense Strategic Guidance," states that countering China is the Pentagon’s "sole pacing scenario." This means that U.S. military planning and resource allocation will prioritize preparing for and preventing Beijing from seizing Taiwan. The document directs the Pentagon to take a more aggressive approach in reinforcing U.S. military presence in the Indo-Pacific while reducing commitments in other global theaters. The Washington Post reported that several passages of the memo closely mirror recommendations from the conservative Heritage Foundation, which has influenced Trump administration policies.

Assuming Risks Elsewhere

To implement this strategy, the Pentagon will "assume risk in other theaters," meaning it will reduce its direct involvement in European and Middle Eastern security concerns. NATO allies are expected to take on "far greater" responsibility in countering Russia, while Washington’s involvement in counterterrorism efforts in the Middle East and Africa will be scaled back unless threats pose a direct danger to the U.S. homeland. The Washington Post highlighted that this move represents a stark departure from previous administrations, which sought to maintain a balance between European and Indo-Pacific security commitments.

The strategy also calls for an expanded role for the U.S. military in homeland defense, countering illegal migration, and combating drug trafficking—tasks traditionally handled by the Department of Homeland Security. Additionally, the guidance suggests securing strategic locations such as Greenland and the Panama Canal, broadening U.S. defense priorities beyond conventional global threats.

Concerns Over NATO and Taiwan Relations

While the Biden administration emphasized alliances in countering Russian aggression, the new Pentagon guidance suggests that the U.S. will no longer be Europe’s primary security provider. Instead, NATO members must increase their defense spending to compensate for reduced American involvement. The Washington Post cited concerns from U.S. lawmakers, who fear that such a shift could weaken NATO’s collective deterrence capabilities.

Similarly, the memo calls for Taiwan to significantly increase its military budget, aligning with Trump’s long-standing position that U.S. allies should contribute more to their own defense. The Taiwanese government has expressed concerns about Washington’s long-term commitment, especially after President Trump avoided directly answering whether the U.S. would intervene militarily if China invaded. The Washington Post reported that recent military exercises by China near Taiwan have raised alarm over the island's ability to defend itself.

Military Build-Up in the Indo-Pacific

The Pentagon’s new plan involves increasing the deployment of submarines, bombers, unmanned ships, and specialized Army and Marine Corps units in the Indo-Pacific. Additionally, there will be a heightened focus on bunker-busting bombs and other weapons designed to destroy reinforced targets, which could be crucial in a conflict over Taiwan. The Washington Post noted that these strategic shifts are part of a broader effort to deter China from launching a surprise attack, often referred to as a "fait accompli" seizure of Taiwan.

Heritage Foundation’s Influence and Internal Debate

A major revelation from The Washington Post is the striking resemblance between the Pentagon’s memo and a 2024 report by the Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank. Some passages from the defense guidance document are nearly identical to those in the Heritage report, raising questions about the extent of its influence over Pentagon policy. One of the Heritage report’s co-authors, Alexander Velez-Green, now holds an interim role as the Pentagon’s top policy official, further cementing the connection between the think tank and the administration’s defense strategy.

Internally, U.S. lawmakers and military officials have expressed confusion over the Pentagon’s abrupt shift in focus. A congressional aide, speaking to The Washington Post on condition of anonymity, said the policy is contradictory, aiming for military dominance worldwide while simultaneously pulling back from key global regions.

Nuclear Expansion and the "Golden Dome" Defense

The new guidance also calls for expanding U.S. nuclear capabilities and strengthening homeland missile defense, particularly through Trump’s proposed "Golden Dome" system—a conceptual shield against incoming threats. The Washington Post noted that this aligns with Trump's broader vision of military self-sufficiency and a reduced reliance on alliances for national defense.

Uncertain Future for U.S. Global Strategy

While the Trump administration is pushing forward with this new defense framework, the long-term impact remains uncertain. As the Pentagon shifts its focus to the Indo-Pacific, concerns are mounting among allies in Europe and beyond regarding the reliability of U.S. commitments. Whether this strategy will successfully deter China or leave the U.S. more vulnerable to threats elsewhere is still up for debate, the Post notes.