IMD retains above-normal rainfall forecast for June to September

Rainfall activity is likely to intensify in Kerala in the next few days, IMD said

Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) on May 27 retained its April forecast that India is set to receive above normal monsoon rains this year.

Above normal rains will help the country, which depends heavily on the summer rains for its farm output, boost agriculture and overall economic growth, the weather department said.

"India's monsoon core zone comprising most of the rain-fed agriculture areas are likely to receive above-normal rainfall (more than 106 per cent of the long period average)," IMD director general Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said during a press conference.

Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal form the country's core monsoon zone where agriculture is primarily rain-fed.

The agency said below-normal monsoon rainfall is expected in northeast India, normal in northwest, and above-normal in central and south peninsular regions of the country.

For the month of June, rainfall is likely to be normal over the country as whole (92-108 percent of the long period average), IMD said, adding that below normal showers are expected in many areas of northern and eastern parts of northwest India, among others.

Also read: Relief from heat wave in Delhi, Rajasthan, Haryana likely after three days, says IMD

Cyclone Remal has helped advance the progress of monsoon in the Bay of Bengal region, said Mohapatra, adding that there may not be any long term impact on monsoon.

In addition, the rainfall activity is likely to intensify in Kerala in the next few days, IMD said.

"Barring a few parts of southern peninsular India, normal to above-normal maximum temperatures are expected in the country in June," the senior meteorologist said, adding that conditions are favourable for monsoon onset over Kerala in the next five days.

With the crippling heat testing power grids and triggering drought-like conditions in parts of the country, a prediction of above-normal monsoonal rainfall comes as a huge relief for the nation.

According to the Central Water Commission, water storage in 150 major reservoirs in India dropped to just 24 percent of their live storage last week, exacerbating water shortages in many states and significantly affecting hydropower generation.

El Nino conditions are prevailing at present, and La Nina may set in by August-September, scientists say.

While El Nino -- periodic warming of surface waters in the central Pacific Ocean -- is associated with weaker monsoon winds and drier conditions in India, La Nina -- the antithesis of El Nino -- leads to plentiful rainfall during the monsoon.

Meanwhile, Mohapatra also said the northwestern and central parts that include Delhi, Rajasthan and Haryana, can expect some relief from heatwave due to fresh western disturbance.

"Expect relief from the heat wave in northwest and central parts of the country after three days due to a western disturbance and moisture incursion from the Arabian Sea. There could be some thunderstorm activity in northwest India and rain in the western Himalayan region," Mohapatra said in a virtual press conference.

In Himachal Pradesh, Shimla posted the highest temperature of 30.6 degrees Celsius on May 26, the weather department said.

"Heat wave conditions will continue for the next 48 hours and after that, there will be relief from the heat wave on 29-30 May and the temperature will also decrease... Rain is also likely in some areas," said IMD scientist Surender Paul.