Eknath Shinde's dilemma: Why staying in power is crucial

Eknath Shinde was reported to be unhappy after BJP rejected his demand for the Home portfolio.

After a suspense which continued for over a week, Eknath Shinde has finally accepted to be a part of the Mahayuti government and is slated to take oath as Deputy CM on Thursday. He was reported to be unhappy after BJP rejected his demand for the Home portfolio and Legislative Assembly Speaker's post. He had insulated himself and refused to meet anyone citing his illness. There were speculations that he had decided to remain out of the new government. However, Devendra Fadnavis met him on Tuesday and convinced him to join the government. Here are the reasons which led to change of his heart:

1. Fear of internal strife in the Shiv Sena

If Eknath Shinde decides to nominate an alternative candidate for the Deputy Chief Minister's position, latent ambitions among party members could come to the forefront. While his son, Srikant Shinde, remains a prominent contender, other names such as Shambhuraje Desai and Uday Samant are also being speculated upon. If Srikant secures the post, Shinde may face allegations of nepotism, as his son already holds a Lok Sabha seat. Conversely, appointing another leader could ignite internal discord within the Shiv Sena, challenging Shinde's ability to maintain unity within his faction.

2. Emergence of a rival power base

Eknath Shinde's rebellion in June 2022 reshaped the undivided Shiv Sena, establishing him as the undisputed authority within the party. His two-and-a-half-year tenure as Chief Minister has further cemented his dominance. Currently, no leader within the party commands a comparable stature. However, appointing someone else as Deputy Chief Minister could pave the way for a rival power center, potentially eroding Shinde's influence and destabilizing his leadership.

3. Managing alliances

Eknath Shinde has been the pivotal link between the BJP and the Shiv Sena, ensuring smooth coordination within the Mahayuti alliance. Under his leadership, the coalition government has operated with minimal controversy. Even when the BJP brought Ajit Pawar's rebel NCP faction into the fold, Shinde refrained from objecting, maintaining a cooperative stance. His rapport with Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah remains robust. However, his absence from a key role in the government could disrupt the synergy between the alliance partners, creating uncertainty in their collaboration.

It is important for the BJP as well to keep Shinde in good humour. Shinde's party is part of the Narendra Modi's government at the centre. Not taking Shinde along will also strengthen the opposition narrative that BJP subdues it's regional partners.