Definite link between climate change and rise in average temperatures, says top Skymet climate scientist

Representative Image (Image: Reuters)

Climate change is sending the temperature soaring in India, even though the monsoon is expected to be normal.

"The prolonged heat wave in India is directly the result of climate change. And while it would be premature to conclude that India is the hottest country on the planet, several cities across the country have breached the 45-degree mark," says Mahesh Palawat, Vice President at Skymet Weather Services.

“There is a definite link between climate change and the rise in average temperatures, which is worsening the impact of heatwaves,” he told Moneycontrol.

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The hottest areas are centred in Uttar Pradesh, Vidarbha, North Rajasthan, Haryana, parts of Delhi, Jharkhand, and parts of Madhya Pradesh.

"Banda in Southwest Uttar Pradesh recorded an all-time high temperature of 47.4 degrees while the Sports Complex in Delhi recorded 46.4 degrees," Palawat said.

For Delhi, this was the second hottest April since 1951 after 2010.

Prolonged dry spell associated with severe heat waves has led to power crises in many states across the country, the worst affected states being Punjab, Haryana, Jammu Kashmir, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, and Maharashtra, Palawat said.

On April 29, the peak power demand for the country was 207.111 gigawatts (GW). The earlier record was broken recently with peak demand of 201.066 GW. However, there is a silver lining as pre -monsoon activities are expected to commence over parts of Northwest and East India from May 2, he said.

Skymet Weather Services is a private Indian company offering weather forecasting services. It became the first private sector entity to provide weather forecasts and weather graphics to the public and Indian media in 2003.

The principal government agency forecasting weather is the India Meteorological Department (IMD), an agency of the Ministry of Earth Sciences of the Government of India. It is the principal agency responsible for meteorological observations, weather forecasting and seismology. Its subsidiaries include the Regional Meteorological Centre, Chennai, and the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, which is based in Delhi.

According to Palawat, climate change induces extreme and differing impacts in contiguous areas. ``Last year, while there was drought in West Rajasthan, there was heavy rainfall in the eastern parts of the state,’’ he points out.

In his estimate, the most distinct feature of climate change on hot weather is that rainy days are reducing.

"As we approach June and July, the humidity will increase, leading to even more discomfort," predicts Palawat, a former Indian Air Force boxer.

Interestingly, even as the IMD has issued a yellow alert warning of a heat wave spell in Delhi beginning April 28, Skymet believes that parts of north India may get some respite from the ongoing heat wave between May 4-7.
He expects relief from the ongoing heat wave by May 4. Pre-monsoon dust storm, thunderstorm and rain is possible between May 4 and 7. Mostly during late afternoon/evening over Punjab, Haryana, Delhi and west UP," says the Skymet vice-president.

That would be welcome news, indeed, for sweltering citizens, unable to spot a spec of cloud in the sky, at least in most parts of north India.

A heat wave is declared in the plains when the maximum temperature is over 40 degrees and at least 4.5 notches above normal. A severe heatwave is declared if departure from normal temperature is more than 6.4 notches, according to the IMD.

India has recorded its hottest March since the country’s meteorological department began keeping records 122 years ago, threatening lives and the food supply in a country battling with sporadic attacks of the coronavirus, which has refused to go away in the country, as it has in most other parts of the world.

Says Palawat: "The average nationwide temperature in March was 33.1°C (91.6°F), beating out the 32.7°C recorded in March 2021—itself the third warmest on record.’’

According to one definitive version forwarded by climate change scientists, while March is usually a cooler month in India, coming before the hottest summer months of April and May, the country’s spring season is shortening and metamorphosing into summer due to the accumulation of greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere.

Palawat, however, adds a caveat: ``There is no doubt that extreme heat events are increasing in India and global warming has a primary role in this, although there are several other factors at play as well.”

This has deadly effects. While India’s average temperature only rose by some 0.5°C between 1960 and 2009, the probability of a massive heat-related mortality event—or a heat event marked by over 100 deaths—rose by 146 percent, according to a 2017 study Increasing probability of mortality during Indian heat waves, which appeared in Science Advances, an American peer-reviewed multidisciplinary open-access scientific journal established in early 2015.