Decoded: Why Jammu is emerging as the new epicentre of terrorism in J&K

Soldiers stand next to a vehicle after an attack by suspected militants on an Indian Army convoy in Kathua district of J&K.

The recent spate of terror attacks in Jammu and Kashmir reinforces a new trend of terrorism in the state—the one that is shifting towards the Rajouri-Poonch area. The attack on an Army convoy, killing five security personnel in Badnota village, 124 km from Kathua town in Jammu, is one among the string of recent attacks in the state. The renewed approach taken by the anti-state actors to foment terror in the region has compelled security agencies to relook at the counter-terror machinery and develop a punitive-based approach.

When compared with Kashmir Valley, Jammu had been relatively terror-free over the past two decades until recently, when the region is witnessed a spike in terror attacks.

June 2024 saw a series of attacks in the region. On June 9, the day of the swearing-in ceremony of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, unidentified terrorists fired upon a bus ferrying pilgrims, resulting in the death of at least 10 people and injuries to 33 others in the Reasi district of the Jammu region. On June 26, three terrorists were killed during a gunfight with security forces in the Gandoh region of Doda district in Jammu.

A senior Srinagar-based security analyst, requesting anonymity said there are multiple factors that may be leading to the new trend. A significant one is the vacuum on the ground with a large number of troops redeployed to the Line of Actual Control in Eastern Ladakh in the aftermath of the 2020 standoff with China. This could have resulted in a gap in local intelligence. There is also the increased use of modern but easily available technology by terrorist groups looking to find new routes to keep the insurgency going.

Professor Malkit Singh of Centre for Kashmir Studies, Central University of Himachal Pradesh, attributes the recent spurt in terror activities to a deliberate attempt by the terrorists to take advantage of the vacuum resulting from heavy deployment of the troops in the Ladakh sector amid the ongoing standoff with China along the Line of Actual Control. “They want to exploit the void created by the redeployment of forces. Also, the Jammu region is reporting more terror incidents because infiltrators are looking at using ingress routes into the Kashmir valley from this side,” observed the academician.

Appu Singh, lawyer, social activist and political analyst, links the recent attacks to nefarious Pakistani designs. "The major terrorist attacks in Jammu this year (April 22 in Rajouri’s Shahdara Shareif area; April 28 in Basantgarh area of Udhampur; May 4 in Poonch; June 9 in Reasi; June 11 in Chattargala area of Bhaderwah and Hiranagar; June 12 and June 26 in Gandoh tehsil in Doda; July 7 in Manjakote area of Rajourie and July 8 attack on an army truck in Kathua’s Badnotra village) clearly reflect and vividly state the mindset of our belligerent neighbour, Pakistan, who has since years destroyed the peace of Kashmir and are now slowly targeting the Jammu province, with a single minded agenda to create fear and unrest in the dogra region," observed Singh.

These attacks speak volumes about the current security scenario in the Jammu region and are highly condemnable. "I wish clamorous protests and by raising anti- Pakistan slogans we would have been able to create an impediment for the cowardice act of the Pakistan backed terrorists. Instead the brutal fact is that Jammu and Kashmir is still tied to the apron strings of intelligence failure by some of the government agencies that have been boisterous about their impeccable functioning tactics. Rather Jammu and Kashmir Police’s failure and the local administration’s lax attitude have unfortunately provided an impetus to the sleeping terrorist groups that have added to the cesspool of terrorism in the Jammu region," commented the lawyer.

Professor Abha Chauhan, Director, Centre for Kashmir studies, Central University of Himachal Pradesh feels that the attacks are a ploy to cut short  the democratic process that are likely to set off with the polls slated later this year. "The Union Territory is going to polls shortly as per the Supreme Court directions, the terrorists aided by their handlers across the border will leave no stone unturned to disrupt the electoral process,” says the academician.

Abha Chauhan opines terror attacks have shifted to the Jammu region after the revocation of Jammu and Kashmir’s Article 370 in August 2019 by the PM Modi-led government following a crackdown on terror groups and the separatists in the Kashmir Valley. The attacks are also happening while the annual pilgrimage to Kashmir's Amarnath Shrine is underway.

The terrorists want to convey a strong message to the world, that while New Delhi speaks about all its achievements and success, it hasn't got the arterial region of Jammu and Kashmir under control. It is also a timely reminder of active presence of anti-national elements and how subversive actions against our security forces can be coordinated willfully. The fact that the attacks come in the month of  June-July (July was when Burhan Wani's encounter took place in 2016), is another timely reminder of how anti-state actors want the separatist narrative to be active and running, reasons the academician.