COP28 starts: Global stocktake, climate finance, limiting fossil fuels key agenda items

More than 130 heads of states and heads of governments are likely to attend COP28 and about 97,000 delegates are expected. However, Joe Biden and Xi Jinping, the leaders of two of the world’s top greenhouse gas emitters, will not be present.

The 28th session of the Conference of the Parties (COP28) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change starts in Dubai on November 30, but the most important climate meeting, with the largest gathering of world leaders, was already mired in controversy.

On November 26, the Centre for Climate Reporting and the BBC reported that the UAE team had plans to discuss fossil fuel deals with 15 nations during the climate talks. COP28 chief Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, who is also the UAE oil chief executive, denied the claims in the report.

“These allegations are false and are not accurate. It is an attempt to undermine the work of the COP28 presidency. Do you think the UAE, or myself, would need the COP or the COP presidency to establish business deals or commercial relationships?” Jaber asked during a press conference on November 29.

More than 130 heads of states and heads of governments are likely to attend COP28 and about 97,000 delegates are expected. However, Joe Biden and Xi Jinping, the leaders of two of the world’s top greenhouse gas emitters, will not be present.

COP28

UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, India Prime Minister Narendra Modi, French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will attend.

Controversy aside, COP28 has some serious business in the coming two weeks, which will be crucial for limiting global warming to 1.5°C from pre-industrial levels by 2050, as stated in the 2015 Paris Agreement signed by 195 countries.

Moneycontrol gives you a gist of the main talking points at COP28:

Global Stocktaking

The global stocktaking is a two-year process scheduled every five years. The first global stocktaking got under way in 2022 and will conclude at COP28. The main task at COP28 is to assess for the first time the progress made by countries towards meeting the 2015 Paris Agreement's goal of limiting the global temperature rise.

This will include a review of national net-zero emission targets. It will nudge countries that have not updated their national emission-cutting targets or Nationally Determined Contribution (NDCs) to do so at the earliest since the deadline is 2025.

Discussions will include steps towards cutting carbon dioxide emissions by taking steps such as tripling renewable energy and boosting green technology investments.

The next stocktaking will start in 2028. The objective is to coordinate efforts on climate action, including measures to bridge the gaps in progress.

Loss and Damage Fund

According to the United Nations, developing countries need at least $200 billion every year by 2030 to adapt to worsening climate conditions such as rising sea levels and storms. This is apart from the funding needed by these countries to replace polluting energy with clean sources. Besides, there are the costs of the damage already being caused by climate disasters.

At COP28, countries will be tasked with setting up a “loss and damage” fund to help with this. At COP15 in 2009, developed countries committed to jointly mobilising and providing developing countries with $100 billion per year from 2020 through to 2025 to address their climate needs. But there is no publicly available data to show whether the pledge has been met for even a single year.

There is also disagreement between the quality or type of finance. Currently, market rate loans comprise the largest segment of the overall finance provided by developed countries, as per an Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) report released on November 16. This burdens the already debt-ridden developing nations it is supposed to help.

COP28 will be the first climate summit to include business and philanthropy on its official agenda. This is likely to help find a path towards the $4 trillion funding gap that exists in climate change. At least 1,000 top executives from across the world, including Bill Gates, co-chair of the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, and Kristalina Georgieva, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, will attend the summit.

Limiting fossil fuels

The most fierce negotiations at COP28 are likely to be on the future role of fossil fuels. The dilemma of whether countries should commit to “phasing out” or “phasing down” the use of CO2-emitting coal, oil and gas will remain.

In September, G20 countries under the Presidency of India committed to expedite efforts to phase down unabated coal power, in line with national circumstances, and uphold their 2009 promise made in Pittsburgh to eliminate and rationalise inefficient fossil fuel subsidies. At COP26 too, countries agreed to phase down the use of coal.

But neither at G20 nor at COP26 did the countries agree to quit all fossil fuels - the main source of planet-warming emissions.

The US and the European Union will insist on a “phase out fossil fuel” deal at COP28, but the UAE, Russia and developing nations such as India are not likely to support this on the grounds of energy security, accessibility and affordability.

Apart from these key topics, other issues will be discussed at COP28 and there will be numerous bilateral agreements for mutual cooperation in energy transition for technology and knowledge sharing.
Other themes include tripling of renewable energy, doubling energy efficiency by 2030, bringing the required scale in emission-abatement technologies such as carbon capture technology so that they become affordable.