BJP reworks alliance strategy in Tamil Nadu, drops a big hint

File: Prime Minister Narendra Modi with Tamil Nadu BJP President K Annamalai

In the changed political scenario in Tamil Nadu, with actor Vijay launching his own party - Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) - and looking to stitch together an opposition alliance, the BJP seems to be reworking its electoral strategy in Tamil Nadu. After its setback in the Lok Sabha polls, when it drew a blank at the head of a political front without the two Dravidian majors, the BJP is wary of a polarisation that would limit the election to a contest between the ruling DMK and the main opposition, the AIADMK.

The BJP’s State president K Annamalai, the prime cause for alienating AIADMK from the BJP for the Lok Sabha polls, was conscious that there would be little room for a third front if Vijay ties up with the AIADMK, and pulls in some of the smaller parties such as the VCK, a party of Dalits with pockets of influence in northern Tamil Nadu.

There is a growing clamour among the VCK cadres for a share in power, or ministerial berths, which its current alliance partner, the DMK, is unwilling to concede. Aadhav Arjuna, who was in the VCK until recently and was a critic of the DMK, is close to Vijay. VCK leader Thol Thirumavallavan himself had spoken of power sharing. The AIADMK, unlike the DMK, is not averse to accommodating other parties in the government, thus making it an attractive option for the smaller parties.

A confusion brewed during a book (on Ambedkar) release function where Thirumavallavan was to share stage with Vijay. But, apparently, pressure from the senior ally DMK and a controversy that arose terming it as sharing the stage with the “enemy”, Thirumavallavan refrained from attending the function. But his irritation with ‘media reports’ was reflected in his statement later, questioning why no one raised doubt when Chief Minister MK Stalin shared the dais with Union Defence Minister Rajnath Singh but there was a hue and cry about him sharing space with Vijay. The book, released on December 6, contained an interview of Thirumavallavan.

So, if the AIADMK doesn't align with the BJP again, VCK may consider jumping to that camp. Also, Aadhav Arjuna, who is close to Thirumavalavan, and a major source of election funds, is now against any tie-up with the DMK. Although Thirumavalavan expelled him from the VCK, the two remain close.

Annamalai, who had not only criticised Dravidian politics but also Dravidian leaders, including former Chief Minister CN Annadurai leading to the AIADMK severing ties with the BJP, recently has been going soft on the AIADMK, hinting at approaching the Dravidian party for alliance and addressing the latter's general secretary Edappadi K Palaniswami as ‘Annan’ (elder brother). However, Palaniswami has ruled out going back into an alliance with the BJP.

The AIADMK is looking forward to heading an alliance for the 2026 Assembly election in Tamil Nadu and is not averse to sharing power. The most possible alliance could be with Vijay’s TVK: speculation around this stems from the fact that Vijay has been targeting only the BJP and the DMK, while avoiding any attack on the AIADMK.

“We still have one and a half years to go. He (Vijay) has just started his party. He has held the party’s first State-level conference. Coalition will be formed depending upon the situation prevailing at the time of the (Assembly) poll,” Palaniswami had told the media a couple of months ago, not ruling out the possibility.

VCK, whose cadres are looking for power sharing and not too happy about DMK’s reluctance to share power, may also join hands with the AIADMK.

As both VCK and TVK are opposed to the BJP, the AIADMK would have to avoid the BJP. This accounts for the BJP's desperation. An AIADMK alliance with the TVK and the VCK will be formidable and could trigger a polarisation that leaves little space for any third front.