Future with AI: Artificial intelligence will be a weapon in the fight against climate change

Eventually, AI may also be used for hyperlocal weather forecasts, to predict heat waves and flooding at the neighbourhood level. (Representational image by Google DeepMind via Pexels)

Artificial intelligence (AI) is the new buzzword in almost every field—using data solutions to complex problems in healthcare, education and various other sectors. But can AI be used to deal with one of the biggest threats to mankind in recent times—climate change? The answer is in the affirmative for many.

To be sure, the technology cannot battle climate change per se. But its analytical prowess and data-finding skills can be used for mitigation, improving weather forecast and finding adaptation measures, according to scientists.

Many countries are trying to use AI to enhance their weather forecast abilities. IMD is also endeavouring to implement such models. 

- India Meteorological Department (IMD) chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra

In fact, a lot of buzz has been building up in recent times over the possible role of AI to combat climate change. In July this year, in his address to the Security Council debate on artificial intelligence, UN secretary-general António Guterres called for a race to develop AI that is reliable and safe, can end poverty, banish hunger, cure cancer and supercharge climate action.

On October 26, the secretary-general announced a new artificial intelligence advisory body that will work on the risks, opportunities and international governance of artificial intelligence. He said AI could help could supercharge climate action and efforts to achieve the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by 2030.

The UN's #AI4ClimateAction Initiative, in tune with Guterres' call, is exploring if AI could advance and scale transformative climate solutions for mitigation and adaptation action in developing countries with a focus on least-developed countries and small island developing states.

In Kenya, the Africa Climate Week (ACW) discussed examples of AI-powered solutions such as climate-resilient supply chains, clean energy for rural women and disaster risk reduction initiatives in the continent.

Google's artificial-intelligence lab DeepMind is also exploring AI solutions for climate mitigation and adaptation.

Sims Witherspoon, DeepMind’s climate action lead, in a series of talks on TEDTalks and the Wired Impact Summit, elaborated on how AI could help fight climate change in three critical ways. “It can help us understand climate change and its effects on the earth’s ecosystems better. It can help us optimize current systems and infrastructure because we can’t start over from scratch today. It can help accelerate the breakthrough science we need such as fusion as a carbon-free energy source,” Witherspoon said.

In Kenya, the Africa Climate Week (ACW) discussed examples of AI-powered solutions such as climate-resilient supply chains, clean energy for rural women and disaster risk reduction initiatives in the continent. (Image by Magda Ehlers via Pexels)

IMD exploring use of AI

So at a time when the world is racing to find AI-powered solutions to the climate change crisis, how is India faring? According to weather experts and climate scientists, AI can be a powerful tool for forecasting, as AI systems can analyse vast amounts of historical data and can help us predict future events or enhance our weather forecast abilities.

India Meteorological Department (IMD) chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra says the Met office is analysing and testing certain AI-driven models to improve weather forecasts.

The department is collaborating with external agencies as well as internally within the ministry of earth sciences, and has set up an expert group to recommend how AI technology can be used alongside the present weather forecast models.

“Artificial intelligence is a growing area. Many countries are trying to use AI to enhance their weather forecast abilities. IMD is also endeavouring to implement such models,” Mohapatra told Moneycontrol.

Mohapatra said the present numerical and other models can stay and the AI-based systems can complement them or continue alongside. The ministry is using at least six weather forecasting models every day.

“However, nothing is operational at the moment and still in the trial stages. They have to be tried and tested properly before they can be put to use.”

The IMD said AI can help in information-gathering and analysis to help improve weather forecasting, which is a data-based science, and suggest mitigation measures. “AI can be used to analyse or gather fresh information. Past data can be used and analysed in a better way,” Mohapatra said.

Artificial intelligence's help, says Raghu Murtugudde, a visiting professor at IIT Bombay and emeritus professor at the University of Maryland, can be taken for hyperlocal forecasts. He says forecast models are getting better and increasing in their resolution. As the resolution increases, the computational cost goes up.

Even if they reach 1 km resolution globally — called K-scale modelling — we still need information for heat waves, floods, etc., at neighbourhood scales and that is where AI can play a role. “Only by merging data and models with AI, can we produce such hyperlocal forecasts and risk information.”

Help in healthcare

Artificial intelligence, which is already playing a role in the healthcare industry, can be used to prepare early warning systems for climate-sensitive diseases such as dengue, says Roxy Mathew Koll, a climate scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune.

"This can be used to provide reliable forecast accuracy for dengue mortalities at a lead time of two months, which can be efficient for disease prevention well in advance. AI/ML methods are also efficient in picking up the non-linear and conflated interactions of environmental conditions such as rainfall, temperature, and humidity on climate-sensitive diseases," said Koll.

However, in India, getting access to health data is a major hurdle, Koll said, adding though climate data is publicly available and accessible, health and mortality data are scattered and under-reported. “It is a struggle to obtain health data even for research purposes. This limits our ability to develop and operationalize health early warning systems.”

AI models could also give early warnings of climate-linked diseases such as dengue. (Image by Google DeepMind via Pexels)

Not a magic pill

Many scientists such as Professor Somnath Baidya Roy of IIT Delhi, however, caution that while AI could help analyse data, it is not a magic bullet that can solve a problem like climate change in a jiffy.

“Some people may have high expectations from AI, but it is not a magic bullet. Issues such as climate change need emission reductions, policy interventions, and hard decisions,” Roy, head, Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, IIT Delhi, told Moneycontrol.

Weather forecasts, Roy explained, are based on mathematical, statistical, physics-based and other tried-and-tested models though newer tools such as AI are being tried out, which have a long way to go before they can replace the present systems.

Probably in the future, fully AI based models may be possible. But substantial improvements are required in AI as we know it now. We need to develop and break barriers in AI and figure out how to use it.

- Roy

Then, there is the question of the carbon footprint of AI itself, and the massive amounts of energy being consumed by data centres.

Artificial intelligence, Roy explained, needs data. Cloud computing contributes to almost 3 percent of global emissions, which is larger than the aviation sector and many European countries. Emissions and power consumption of large data centres are comparable to towns where they are located, Roy said.

A 2022 BCG Climate AI Survey report says the use of AI offers an opportunity to make a meaningful change, whether through mitigation, adaptation and resilience or by supporting the fundamentals of overall climate efforts. The consultancy group surveyed global public- and private-sector climate and AI leaders about their views on the potential of AI as a tool in the fight against climate change as well as the roadblocks that prevent its adoption.

Eighty-seven percent of those surveyed said advanced analytics and artificial intelligence are helpful in the fight against climate change. Sixty-seven percent of those in the private sector said they want governments to do more to support the use of AI in fighting climate change. Apart from India, the survey covered 13 other countries — Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Chile, China, France, Germany, Japan, New Zealand, South Africa, Spain, the UK, and the US.

But even the BCG report warns that AI is not a panacea for climate change but rather another tool that can be used to help us build a more resilient future. Like any other technology, it has its limitations and requires effective deployment in order to achieve the desired results.

“Despite its promise, AI cannot be used to solve the climate crisis in isolation. It depends on the will of decision-makers to act and make the necessary changes—supported partly by AI and other emerging technologies," the authors of the report say.