Explainer: India’s road to net zero emissions is bumpy, but there's hope

Stubble burning releases greenhouse gases into the air. (Photo credit: Neil Palmer via Wikimedia Commons)

Less than a year ago, at the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC) Conference of the Parties (COP26) climate change summit in Glasgow, Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced India’s commitment to join the global fight against climate change. He set five targets, one of which was that India will achieve the target of net zero by 2070.

And thus, a new phrase was introduced into the Indian climate lexicon: “net zero”.

What is net zero, and why was the demand for it made? Ahead of COP27, scheduled in Egypt from November 6-18, let us unpack the term as well as how India can get there.

What is net zero?

Earth’s temperature has risen by 0.08° Celsius per decade since 1880. However, the rate of warming since 1981 is more than twice that: 0.18° C per decade. It is impacting regional and seasonal temperatures, reducing snow cover and sea ice, intensifying heavy rainfall, and changing habitat ranges for plants and animals. In time, it will result in an irreversible ecological catastrophe.

To prevent this, the Paris Agreement was adopted by 196 countries in December 2015. It established that the world must limit global temperature rise to well below 2° C in this century, and preferably under 1.5° C.

To achieve that, countries need to be net zero. It essentially means contributing nothing to global warming. To understand this better, imagine a bathtub. When you turn on the taps, you add more water. When you pull out the plug, water flows out. To keep the amount of water at the same level, you need to make sure that the input and output are balanced.

Reaching net zero applies the same principle. It means that a country will not put any more man-made carbon into the atmosphere - for example through greenhouse gases created when coal is burnt - than it removes from it.

Why should India be bothered?

India is the third largest emitter of carbon dioxide (CO2), after China and the US. As per the World Resources Institute, the country’s total greenhouse gas emissions in 2018 were about 3.3 billion tonnes. If we go about business as usual, our greenhouse emissions will rise every year - reaching above 4 billion tonnes per year by 2030 and 7 billion tonnes by 2050.

Then there’s the fact that India ranked the lowest in the 2022 Environment Performance Index (EPI). The EPI ranks 180 countries on 40 performance indicators such as climate change, environmental public health and biodiversity, among others. “With markedly poor air quality and quickly rising greenhouse gas emissions, India, for the first time, comes in at the very bottom of country rankings,” the EPI statement said.

It also just isn’t about what we are emitting into the atmosphere. India accounts for 1/6th of the world’s population. At our current rate, by 2050, one in every four people impacted by climate events globally could be based in our country. That’s something we should all worry about.

(Image: Thangaraj Kumaravel via Wikimedia Commons)

Okay, so then what’s the problem?

To be net zero by 2070, India must reduce net carbon emissions by 1 billion tonnes by 2030. That’s easier said than done.

Finding an alternative to fossil fuels will take time. India is still heavily dependent on coal; it accounts for 55 percent of the country's energy needs. Moving away from it when the country already suffers from major power woes will be tough.

Another stumbling block is green funding. This is a type of financing to allocate funds for projects that create a positive environmental impact. Climate Policy Initiative, in its recent report, has claimed that "the tracked green finance in 2019-2020 was Rs 3,09,000 crore per annum, which is less than a fourth of India's needs".

It means we are, at the moment, falling far short of the country's current need for its ambitious climate targets. Even global aid (in the form of climate finance) has been minuscule so far, curbing India’s transition to clean energy and investment in innovative technologies.

Lastly, the new clean energy method that is adopted by the country needs to be green, sustainable and economical. It cannot hinder growth in developing countries like ours, or allow the poor to lose their entitlement to advancement. The options, on this front, are limited.

Has nothing been done so far?

It’s not all doom and gloom. As of 2020, India was making progress.  According to India’s 3rd Biennial Update to the UNFCC, our country was able to reduce its GDP emissions intensity by 24 percent during 2005-16. The share of electricity energy generation from renewable energy—solar, wind, hydro and biomass power—was 22.2 percent in 2020-21. Our country already has the fourth-largest wind power capacity in the world.

Government policy, too, stresses on green growth and green jobs. To this end, the use of coal as a fuel will be banned across the National Capital Region (NCR) from January 1, 2023. Air pollution is a major concern in the area, and coal has a big role to play in it (1.4 million tonnes is consumed in six major industrial districts of NCR alone). It remains to be seen though how the region will comply.

PM Narendra Modi also launched the National Hydrogen Mission last year, which aims to make India a green hydrogen hub and produce five million tonnes of green hydrogen by 2030. If hydrogen is obtained using renewable sources, it can save the 830 million tonnes of CO2 that is emitted annually when this gas is produced using fossil fuels around the world.

That’s not all. Indian Railways has already announced that it will be net zero by 2030, leading to a reduction of emissions by 60 million tonnes annually. Similarly, India’s massive LED bulb campaign is reducing emissions by 40 million tonnes every year. Ninety Indian airports are on the road to becoming carbon-neutral by 2024.

India Inc., too, has set targets internally to become carbon-neutral by 2050 or before. These include Vedanta, Aditya Birla Group, JSW Group, Adani Transmission, Mahindra & Mahindra, and Dalmia Cement, among others. Reliance Industries will be net zero by 2035.

To truly be net zero, however, every aspect of Indian society—from public transport to homes—will have to be examined and reimagined. It’s what makes the road a long one.