Rupee has underperformed Asian peers this month amid a yen trade unwinding and outflows from stocks. The central bank’s strategy to allow a weaker rupee may be aimed at correcting some REER overvaluation to boost India's trade competitiveness.
The dollar sagged below the closely watched 145 yen mark as U.S. Treasury yields slid, ahead of weekly jobless claims data later in the day and a hotly anticipated speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell at the central bank's annual Jackson Hole symposium on Friday
The currency has edged lower against the dollar, while the Indonesian rupiah and Malaysian ringgit have soared more than 4% in August. That’s a turnaround for the rupee, which was the region’s best performer in the first half of 2024 after the Hong Kong dollar
The weakness in the dollar lifted the euro to its highest this year, while sterling was perched near a one-month peak. The emerging markets currency index was also at a record high.
Minutes of the Federal Reserve's July policy meeting and a speech from Chair Jerome Powell at Jackson Hole are likely to be the main drivers of currency movement this week, which will also see inflation data from Canada and Japan alongside Purchasing Managers' Index readings across the U.S., euro zone and UK.
The rupee closed at 83.94 against the U.S. dollar, nearly unchanged from its close of 83.9475 in the previous session.
The central bank hasn't given banks a specific target but has asked them to report the extent of such payments to it on a regular basis, the sources said
The idea involves avoiding pegging the exchange rate with the dollar or any other third currency. However, the official says that in order to establish a direct FX rate, the rupee and ruble would need to trade in the same currency exchange platform for a much larger quantity and for a longer duration while the two sides workout a mutual referencing price.
Forex traders said risk aversion in the global markets amid heightened geopolitical tension in the Middle East between Israel and Iran weighed on sentiments
The quantum and duration of the resulting correction in Indian stock markets will depend on how much more unwinding is expected from Yen carry traders, and how much more support can be expected from DIIs during the consequent FII outflows
The dollar saw its biggest gains against the yen, which had dropped sharply earlier in the week amid uncertainty over Japanese monetary policy.
The leap in the yen and fall in higher-yielding currencies suggests that the dollar-yen carry trade and some of these other yen carry trades really did unwind
However, economists note that even if the rupee is overvalued the RBI may not orchestrate a steep depreciation.
The domestic currency's depreciation has been less than what has been seen for competing currencies like the Vietnamese dong and Indonesian rupiah, tempering the country's competitiveness in overseas markets.
The yen's recovery has been driven by timely interventions from Tokyo in early July and a recent hawkish shift by the Bank of Japan, prompting investors to unwind popular carry trades.
Global carry trades unwinding has also been boosting the Japanese currency and jolting markets around the world.
The yen is up 10 percent against the dollar in just over 3 weeks, driven by Bank of Japan's large 15 basis points rate rise on July 31 to 0.25 percent.
The yen traded around 0.2 percent stronger at 149.085 per dollar, after popping as high as 148.51 overnight for the first time since mid-March.
The BOJ has indicated plans to announce quantitative tightening, with expectations that it will gradually halve its monthly bond purchases over a two-year period.
The dollar is no longer as dominant as it was in the eighties or nineties but it’s no pushover either as countries such as China push their own currency as a replacement
The market also braced for a slew of top-tier economic data from China as investors sought clarity on how much the world's second-largest economy is struggling to gain momentum.
The U.S. currency was supported by higher Treasury yields in the aftermath of surprisingly robust domestic jobs data at the end of last week, which sparked a dramatic paring of bets for Fed rate cuts this year.
Forex traders said a weak American currency and firm trend in the equity markets supported the local currency even as investors remained concerned ahead of the RBI's monetary policy decision to be announced on Friday.
Forex traders said the rupee consolidated in a narrow range as elevated crude oil prices weighed on investor sentiments, while the decline in the US dollar cushioned the downside.
As long as the dollar is the competition for domestic transactions, stabilising the peso will not be easy