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Trident Q3 Review: Steady run continues

January 17, 2019 / 20:31 IST
Textile and clothing
     
     
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    Krishna Karwa
    Moneycontrol Research

    Highlights:
    -  Trident trades at reasonable valuations
    -  Q3 numbers were good across segments
    -  Home textile capacity utilisation is the key monitorable
    -  Cotton costs and currency fluctuations are the main risks

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    Trident (stock price: Rs 70.85, market cap: Rs 3,610.48 crore) reported good top-line traction and margin accretion in Q3 FY19. Higher capacity utilisation rates, long-term debt repayment, growing demand for paper products and an undemanding valuation make the stock a worthy pick.

    Image 1

    Q3 analysis

    Positives
    Sales grew across all segments owing to healthy demand. Bed/bath linen grew 41.7/10.1 percent YoY, respectively
    -  Overall gross margins expanded mainly due to a good product mix
    -  Long-term debt reduced from Rs 1,688 crore as on FY18-end to Rs 1,428 crore as on end- Q3FY19
    -  Higher other income led to improved net profit margins

    Negatives
    Employee costs and other expenses rose substantially year-on-year (YoY). This caused EBITDA margins to remain flat YoY

    Image 2

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    Observations

    Revenue drivers
    - In home textiles, the proximity of branding-cum-distribution teams to the US should aid volume growth
    - Innovative value-added products will be launched in the branded bed and bath linen categories
    - Paper prices have been on an uptrend because of supply constraints, which should help fetch higher realisations
    - Global and domestic prospects in the home textiles market appear promising

    Margin driversNet debt (ie. debt minus cash) is likely to reduce further from Rs 2,197 crore as on December 31, 2018
    -  The management aims to scale up utilisation levels at the bed and bath linen manufacturing facilities to 60-70 percent over the next 2-3 years

    Image 5

    -  Higher captive utilisation of yarn output for home textiles will reduce dependence on external supplies
    -  The product mix is shifting gradually in favour of private label brands
    -  The contribution of high-value ‘Copier’ paper to the paper segment’s sales, which stood at 49 percent in 9MFY19, will increase in due course

    Risks
    - Adverse currency fluctuations and steep raw material (cotton) prices may impact exports/gross margins, respectively
    -  Order cancellations or delay in executions thereof (in home textiles) would cause utilisation rates to remain low, thus resulting in lower profitability
    -  Heavy capex by paper players to add new capacities could lead to moderation in margins because of lower realisations

    Outlook
    The stock, despite a sharp 34 percent rally from its 52-week low, trades at 8 times its FY21 projected earnings.

    Image 6

    Therefore, one shouldn’t overlook this investment opportunity.

    For more research articles, visit our Moneycontrol Research page

    Krishna Karwa
    Krishna Karwa
    first published: Jan 17, 2019 06:48 pm

    Disclosure & Disclaimer

    This Research Report / Research Recommendation has been published by Moneycontrol Dot Com India Limited (hereinafter referred to as “MCD”) which is a registered Investment Advisor under the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Investment Advisers) ...Read More

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