HDFC Securities' research report on GMDC
GMDC’s 4QFY18 numbers were strong with revenues at Rs 20.7bn (16.8% YoY) and adj. EBITDA of Rs 1.98bn (33.1% YoY). Reported nos. were hit by (1) Salary arrears and gratuity provision of Rs 631mn, and (2) Change in depreciation method on power assets (Rs 623mn). 4Q volumes were strong (3.4 mt, 27% YoY/QoQ). APAT rose 51.8% YoY to Rs 1.37bn.
Outlook
Accordingly our EBITDA for FY19E/20E rises by 2.8/0.7%. With cash now at ~22% of balance sheet, capital allocation decisions are key hereon. Investments in loss-making subsidiaries worry us. Instead, dividends/buybacks or investments into viable wind assets are called for. Given inexpensive valuations, a BUY is justified. Our SoTP value of Rs 210/sh (see inside) is based on 6.5x Mar 20E EBITDA.For all recommendations report, click here
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