Motilal Oswal's research report on Global Health
We analyzed the supply-demand dynamics of hospitals in the Noida/Greater Noida regions, given the recently commissioned hospital of Medanta. From the service availability perspective, there are ~6,000 superspecialty beds available for patients at industry level. From a demand perspective, hospitals in Noida/Greater Noida have a patient population radius of 250km. Patients can come from places such as Western UP, South Delhi, Uttarakhand, Haryana, and Rajasthan. The business prospects for Medanta remain promising as the population base, to be catered to by the healthcare services industry, remains underserved after utilizing the current bed capacity. While FY26 EBITDA would experience a drag due to opex loss from Noida, we expect an EBITDA breakeven within 12-15 months. Subsequently, FY27/FY28 would witness a clear runway for EBITDA growth, fueled by performance from Gurugram, Lucknow, Patna, Noida, Ranchi, and Indore.
Outlook
We continue to value Medanta at 30×12M EV/EBITDA multiple, arriving at a target price of INR 1,480. Backed by strong operational momentum over the next 3-5 years and a well-defined expansion pipeline that strengthens revenue visibility beyond FY28, we reiterate our BUY rating on the stock.
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