MC EXCLUSIVE MC Interview: MoSPI preparing framework for faster data revisions; incorporating AI/ML, says Minister Rao Inderjit Singh

MoSPI has shifted from pen-paper-mode data collection to tablets or Computer Assisted Personal Interview in the national sample surveys (NSS).

The statistics ministry is preparing a framework for faster revisions of data, and is exploring shorter timelines to update inflation and industrial production measures, Rao Inderjit Singh, Union Minister of State (Independent Charge) of the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI), told Moneycontrol.

In a written interview, Singh noted that the ministry was experimenting with a chain-based Index of Industrial Production (IIP) to improve responsiveness to structural changes, and was planning to conduct the Household Consumption Expenditure Survey (HCES)—a key input for inflation measurement—every three years.

At present, the HCES is conducted every five years. The minister noted that the ministry was looking to use GST data, E-Vahan portal, and UPI transaction data from NPCI for the new GDP series.

The ministry is also leveraging artificial intelligence and machine learning to speed up data delivery and ensure robustness. Edited excerpts:

What are the tasks you are undertaking to achieve the Viksit Bharat 2047 milestone?

Aligning with the Prime Minister’s vision of ensuring “data-driven decision-making, so that policy design and implementation become more accurate”, MoSPI is adapting technology including AI/ML in its generation of statistical products and taking the lead role to provide the required data to the policymakers in time so that accurate policies could improve quality of life of the Indians, in the journey towards Viksit Bharat 2047.

The government is undertaking the massive exercise of data revisions which will be completed next year. But India’s waited too long for revisions, are you putting a plan in place so that future revisions come in faster?

MoSPI is exploring the experimental compilation of a chain-based IIP to improve responsiveness to structural changes. The item basket and factory frame of the new IIP series will be selected using the latest data of the Annual Survey of Industries (ASI) 2022-23 data. It is planning to conduct Household Consumption Expenditure Survey in about every 3 years. Accordingly, a base revision of the Consumer Price Index will be done.

Attempts are being made to track India’s large informal sector more regularly and reduce the periodicity of the surveys, like PLFS, which is now available monthly. A pilot has been done on the Annual Survey of Service Sector Enterprises (ASSSE). In addition, the use of GST data, E-Vahan portal, UPI transaction data from NPCI, etc, is also being attempted. With the availability of more datasets, GDP base revision could be done more frequently in the near future.

The ministry has digitised the process of fund disbursement under MPLAD and has expanded the scope as well. What's next? 

Under the new MPLADS Guidelines 2023, the scope of permissible works has been expanded. Additionally, new works can also be added if they align with the spirit and objective of MPLADS Guidelines.

Are you planning to give more teeth to the National Statistical Commission (NSC)?

NSC continues to guide the Ministry on various statistical matters. As per NSC’s recommendations, the Steering Committee for all National Sample Surveys was constituted last year. The recommendations of the Steering Committee and reports of the two Technical Advisory Groups are placed before the NSC. With the overall guidance of NSC and the technological advancements adopted by MoSPI for conducting surveys, the time lag for releasing survey reports has been reduced considerably.

NSC has also been assigned the functions of an oversight body for the implementation of reforms under the roadmap ‘Strengthening the Indian National Statistical System’.

What are the key changes with respect to the administration of statistics that have taken place in the last 11 years?

MoSPI has shifted from pen-paper-mode data collection to tablets or Computer Assisted Personal Interview, or CAPI, in the National Sample Surveys (NSS). Now, all our annual survey reports are released within 90 days and quarterly survey reports within 45 days after the completion of the surveys.

We have also released the National Metadata Structure (NMDS) and the Statistical Quality Assessment Framework (SQAF) for the statistical products. MoSPI has started disseminating the anonymised micro data of the national sample surveys free of cost, for research purposes, on its website.

We have launched e- Sankhyiki portal offering time-series data of key macro indicators. We have started providing data-driven policy suggestions in the form of working papers on various socio-economic aspects to the stakeholder Ministries too. This is expected to make the policies and their implementation more accurate.

How robust is India's statistical system? Have we incorporated the international best practices in our statistical administration?

All the statistical products of MoSPI are released following international standards. The GDP estimates adhere to the System of National Accounts (SNA) 2008, which is an internationally accepted set of recommendations endorsed by the United Nations Statistical Commission. The CPI estimates follow the Consumer Price Index Manual - Concepts and Methods 2020 of IMF and other multilateral agencies.

The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) is compiled and disseminated in accordance with internationally accepted methodology.

National Sample Surveys are conducted based on scientific sampling methodologies. The National Statistics Office (NSO), MoSPI, publishes Relative Standard Errors of key indicators in all the surveys. Moreover, the anonymised unit-level data of the surveys are published on the website and is freely accessible.

All the enterprise surveys conducted by the National Statistics Office (NSO) and MoSPI conform to the global standard. The forward-looking survey on private sector CAPEX investment intentions generates data similar to surveys conducted by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, Statistics Canada or the US Census Bureau.

Do you feel MoSPI has become more accessible to public scrutiny in the last two years? Do you feel in the first nine years, the ministry worked behind closed doors, with less public consultation?

The Ministry follows international standards in estimating the statistical products and regularly engages with international agencies like IMF, United Nations, etc, on statistical issues. The Ministry interacts with these advisory bodies regularly.

To enhance the outreach, the Ministry has started regular data users’ conferences in which it is getting valuable feedback. On technical issues like estimation of CPI, and designing of sample surveys, like ASI, it is obtaining public comments to have more feedback. It has enhanced its interaction with academia and the private sector on research and development in its statistical products. To improve the response rates in the surveys, it has started media outreach.