Wall Street traders trim bets for December Fed rate cut on Powell’s caution

Jerome Powell, chairman of the US Federal Reserve, during a news conference following a Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in Washington, DC, US, on Thursday, Nov. 7, 2024. The Federal Reserve cut its benchmark lending rate by a quarter percentage point Thursday, extending efforts to keep the US economic expansion on solid footing. Photographer: Ting Shen/Bloomberg

Traders pared back their expectations for an interest-rate cut in December and policy-sensitive US yields jumped after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said economic resilience gives officials room to ease more carefully.

The yield on two-year Treasuries rose as much as eight basis points to 4.36% on Thursday as Powell spoke from prepared remarks in Dallas. Swaps traders lowered the chance to less than 60% that the central bank reduces rates at their two-day gathering that wraps on Dec. 18 — from roughly 80% a day earlier.

“The risks to the path of Fed policy priced into markets today feels two sided,” said Zachary Griffiths, head of US investment grade and macro strategy at CreditSights. “Powell’s remarks shade a bit more to the hawkish side as he takes a risk management approach to the future of policy.”

Powell said the US economy wasn’t sending signals that policymakers need to be in a hurry to lower rates, though he made no comments on the possibility of a cut at the December meeting.

“Going a little slower — if the data lets us go a little slower — seems like a smart thing to do,” Powell said during the question-and-answer portion of the event.

Traders have been recalibrating their bets for the Fed’s next rate reduction in recent days, boosting the chances of a December move on Wednesday after October consumer inflation data came in-line with expectations.

While for now the swaps market still favors a December reduction, the outlooks gets murkier for 2025. In the wake of Donald Trump’s presidential victory last week — and the Fed’s latest quarter-point cut — economists across Wall Street have also dialed back their forecasts for the rate path next year.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. chief US economist Michael Feroli said Powell’s remarks could hint at a slower pace of rate cuts even sooner than March.

“We still think the FOMC is likely to cut at December,” he wrote. But “today’s speech opens the door to dialing down the pace of easing as soon as January.”

On Thursday, Powell’s comments helped yields on two- to seven-year notes move higher. Rates on longer-term Treasuries, meantime, pared their increases. Earlier in the session, yields had been mixed after data showed applications for US unemployment benefits fell to the lowest level since May last week and producer prices picked up in October.

A Bloomberg index of Treasury returns was up just 0.63% this year as of Wednesday’s close, marking a steep slide when compared to the year-to-date gain seen in mid-September of about 4.7%.

“Powell’s remarks open the door for a slowing in the pace of rate cuts, which could leave rates higher for longer than investors expect,” said Gennadiy Goldberg, head of interest rate strategy at TD Securities.