UBS predicts Paytm to hit adjusted EBITDA breakeven by Q4, doubles price target

Paytm's share price has surged nearly 70 percent in the past three months.

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26 Aug, 2025 12:21

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International brokerage UBS Securities raised its price target for Paytm by more than double to ₹1,000 as the stock gets a sharp re-rating after the resolution of its regulatory issues. The brokerage believes the new price target factors in significant improvement in the company's share price as its growth narrative turns optimistic. On that account, UBS also expects Paytm to hit adjusted-EBITDA breakeven by Q4 of FY24.

Shares of Paytm reacted positively to the price target upgrade and opened 2 percent higher on November 28. At 09.20 am, shares of Paytm were trading at Rs 935.50 on the NSE.

UBS Securities’ move follows Bernstein’s recent price target hike for Paytm, marking a shift in discussions from survival risks to debates over the firm's bull and bear case scenarios. Even though UBS sharply raised its price target for the stock, it still retained its 'neutral' rating.

Paytm's share price has surged nearly 70 percent in the past three months as the company overcame regulatory setbacks earlier this year, regaining financial health through innovative products, cost optimisation, and improved earnings.

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Furthering this, UBS Securities foresees the next leg of Paytm's business improvement to be driven by a rise in revenue, noting that a large part of cost optimization has already taken place. On this basis, UBS also expects Paytm's FY24 revenue to match the level seen in FY23.

It's worth noting that Paytm suffered a big blow earlier this year after the Reserve Bank of India barred its payments bank from offering services like accepting deposits and accessing UPI payments, which was a major source of revenue for the company.

The payments aggregator reported a net profit of Rs 930 crore in the July-September quarter, a sharp turnaround from a net loss of Rs 290.50 crore in the year-ago period. However, the profit was primarily driven by a one-time gain of Rs  1,345 crore from the sale of its movie ticketing business to Zomato.

Also Read | Bernstein reaffirms bullish outlook on Paytm, hikes target price to Rs 1,000 per share

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