Trading Plan: Will Nifty 50, Bank Nifty consolidate before a directional move?

Nifty Trading Plan

The Nifty 50 extended its downward move for another session, while the Bank Nifty continued its weakness for the fourth straight day on June 13. Both indices traded below short-term moving averages (10- and 20-day EMAs), accompanied by negative crossovers in RSI, MACD, and Stochastic RSI, signaling weakness. According to experts, if the Nifty decisively breaks last Friday’s low of 24,473, the level to watch will be 24,370. However, climbing above 24,850 could open the door to the 25,000–25,200 zone. Meanwhile, the Bank Nifty needs a strong close above 56,000 to trigger an upmove toward 57,000. If it sustains below 56,000, consolidation may be seen with support around 55,000.

On June 13, the Nifty 50 closed at 24,719, down 170 points (0.68 percent), while the Bank Nifty declined 555 points (1 percent) to 55,527. The market breadth was dominated by bears, as about 1,743 shares saw selling pressure compared to 849 advancing shares on the NSE.

Nifty Outlook and Strategy

Rajesh Bhosale, Technical Analyst at Angel One

On the daily chart, the last two sessions were action-packed. However, the weekly chart still reflects a consolidation phase that has lasted for the past five weeks. Friday’s session paints a mixed picture—Nifty slipped below the key short-term 20-DEMA with a bearish gap-down, a level that had previously acted as strong support. This breach raises short-term caution. That said, the 24,450 zone continues to hold strong, having offered support twice before and once again forming an open-low Marubozu candle on Friday—a bullish sign in isolation.

A similar setup with an open-low candle post a gap-down on April 7 had triggered a sharp rally; however, drawing a direct comparison may not be appropriate given the differing macro triggers. We believe 24,400–24,450, aligning with the 50-DEMA, will be a critical support zone. 24,550 is the first immediate support to watch. On the upside, filling the gap near 24,825 and reclaiming the 25,000 mark will be key for bulls. Given the prevailing volatility and geopolitical uncertainties, we maintain a cautious stance and advise a wait-and-watch approach. Traders should look to accumulate near the mentioned supports and consider trimming positions near resistance zones.

Key Resistance: 24,825, 25,000

Key Support: 24,550, 24,450

Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures on a dip around 24,550, with a stop-loss of 24,400, targeting 24,825 / 25,000.

Rajesh Palviya, Senior Vice President Research (Head Technical Derivatives) at Axis Securities

The Nifty ended the last week on a negative note, closing with a weekly loss of 284 points. On the weekly chart, Nifty has formed a Dark Cloud Cover (DCC) pattern—a bearish reversal signal—indicating potential for further downside. However, confirmation in the coming week will be crucial. The index remains in a defined range of 25,200–24,400 for the fifth consecutive week. A breakout above 25,200 may unlock further upside, while a breakdown below 24,400 could pave the way for further declines.

A sustained move above 24,850 may spark buying toward 25,000–25,200, while a break below 24,400 could invite profit booking toward 24,200–24,000. For the week ahead, we expect Nifty to trade within a broader range of 25,200–24,000, with a negative bias. Momentum indicators turn cautious—RSI nears a bearish crossover, while Stochastic reverses from the overbought zone, signaling likely consolidation or profit booking.

Key Resistance: 24,800, 24,950

Key Support: 24,600, 24,450

Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures around 24,600 with a stop-loss of 24,450, targeting 24,850–24,950. Alternatively, traders may consider deploying a Bull Call Spread strategy to achieve moderate returns while maintaining controlled risk and reward. The strategy involves:
• Buying one lot of the 24,700 strike Call option at Rs 175–185
• Selling one lot of the 25,000 strike Call option at Rs 55–65 (June 19 expiry)

Break-even: Rs 24,820
Maximum Risk: Rs 9,000
Maximum Reward: Rs 13,500

Anshul Jain, Head of Research at Lakshmishree Investments

Nifty wrapped up the week with mixed signals—rejecting the mother bar high of 25,116 yet managing to close above the low at 24,502. Bulls edged ahead, holding the price above the 50-day EMA and sweeping a key daily swing low. The trend leans bullish, but momentum needs fuel. For strength to build, Nifty must sustain above 24,760—that would open up an upside window toward 24,850–25,000.

On the flip side, Friday’s low of 24,473 stands as a critical support. A break below this puts the quarterly VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price) at 24,216 in play. This zone will be key for short-term positioning. Bulls are in charge for now, but only just—watch price action closely near these pivot levels.

Key Resistance: 24,760, 24,850, 25,000

Key Support: 24,650, 24,473

Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures on a breakout above 24,760, with a stop-loss below 24,700, targeting 24,850–25,000.

Bank Nifty - Outlook and Positioning

Rajesh Bhosale, Technical Analyst at Angel One

The banking benchmark index, with Friday’s gap-down move, has decisively broken and closed below its 20-DEMA, reinforcing short-term weakness. In this context, adopting a ‘sell-on-rise’ strategy near resistance levels could prove fruitful. In terms of key levels, immediate support for Bank Nifty is placed in the 55,100–55,000 zone, followed by a stronger support near the 54,500–54,400 band. On the upside, immediate resistance is seen around the 55,750–55,950 region (aligning with the 20-DEMA), while a more formidable hurdle is positioned in the 56,700–56,900 zone.

Key Resistance: 55,900, 56,100

Key Support: 55,000, 54,500

Strategy: Sell Bank Nifty Futures at spot on a bounce around 55,900, with a stop-loss of 56,100, targeting 55,000 / 54,500.

Rajesh Palviya, Senior Vice President Research (Head Technical Derivatives) at Axis Securities

Bank Nifty ended the week with a loss of 1,051 points. On the weekly chart, the index has formed a bearish outside bar, with the current candle’s high and low extending beyond the previous week’s range—a potential reversal that awaits confirmation. This would be confirmed upon a weekly close below the psychological 55,000 mark. Technically, a sustained move above 56,000 could trigger fresh buying, pushing the index toward 56,500–57,000, while a break below 55,000 may accelerate selling toward 54,500–54,000.

We expect Bank Nifty to trade within a broader range of 57,000–54,000, with a negative bias. Momentum setup remains weak—RSI is in negative territory and below its reference line, reinforcing the bearish tone.

Key Resistance: 55,700, 56,000

Key Support: 55,300, 55,000

Strategy: Sell Bank Nifty Futures near 55,900, with a stop-loss of 56,100, targeting 55,450–55,300.

Anshul Jain, Head of Research at Lakshmishree Investments

Bank Nifty stayed under pressure last week, forming a bearish engulfing pattern. It closed below the fair value area high of 56,000, reinforcing the bearish tone. Immediate resistance lies at 55,600—if reclaimed, a short-covering rally toward 56,000–56,800 becomes likely.

However, if the index continues to trade below Friday’s low of 55,149, the next target shifts to the quarterly VWAP near 54,300. Momentum favours the bears, but sharp reversals can’t be ruled out if resistance levels are tested and breached. Traders should stay nimble and watch these levels closely—this week could set the tone for the month ahead.

Key Resistance: 55,600, 56,000, 56,800.

Key Support: 55,149, 54,300

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures above 55,600, with a stop-loss of 55,300, targeting 56,000–56,800.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.