Trading Plan: Can Nifty 50 hold 25,000, Bank Nifty defend 56,000 as VIX offers comfort to bulls?

Nifty Trading Plan

The Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty delivered a healthy performance on June 6, with the latter outperforming the former. Both indices formed long bullish candlestick patterns on the daily charts. The Nifty needs to sustain above 25,000 for a move toward 25,116. A breakout above this level can open the door to 25,300, the next key resistance zone. On the downside, the 24,800–24,700 zone is expected to act as support. Meanwhile, Bank Nifty must hold above 56,000 for a sustained upmove toward the 57,000–57,500 zone. Immediate support lies in the 56,200–56,150 range, followed by 56,000, according to experts.

On June 6, the Nifty 50 closed at 25,003, up 252 points (1.02 percent), while the Bank Nifty surged 818 points (1.47 percent) to 56,578. Market breadth was favourable for bulls, with 1,459 stocks advancing compared to 1,132 declining on the NSE.

Nifty Outlook and Strategy

Osho Krishan, Chief Manager - Technical & Derivative Research at Angel One

The Indian equity markets responded enthusiastically to the RBI MPC outcome, demonstrating a robust recovery from key support levels. The Nifty 50 ended the week around 25,000, indicating positive momentum that could continue into the coming week.

Market sentiment has turned more optimistic, bolstered by participation from the broader market, especially rate-sensitive sectors. This widespread engagement has significantly lifted overall confidence. Technically, the index remains strong, with the 20-DEMA providing substantial support.

From a levels perspective, Nifty 50 is eyeing the 25,300 zone, which coincides with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level, making it a critical level for traders. On the downside, 24,800–24,750 is expected to provide a cushion, while the 24,600–24,500 zone remains crucial structural support.

Key Resistance: 25,200, 25,300

Key Support: 24,800, 24,600, 24,500

Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures on dips around 24,800–24,600, with a stop-loss of 24,400 and book profits near 25,300.

Rajesh Palviya, Senior Vice President Research (Head Technical Derivatives) at Axis Securities

On the weekly chart, Nifty 50 formed a bullish candle with a lower shadow, reflecting buying interest near support. The index has been consolidating in the 25,200–24,400 range for the past three weeks.

A sustained breakout above 25,200 could unlock fresh upside potential, possibly towards 25,500–25,800. Conversely, a decisive close below 24,400 may lead to renewed profit booking. A breakdown below 24,850 may also trigger selling pressure toward 24,600–24,400.

We expect the Nifty to trade in a broader band of 25,800–24,400, with a positive bias. The weekly RSI continues to trend upward and remains above its reference line, indicating underlying strength.

Key Resistance: 25,100, 25,250

Key Support: 24,850, 24,750

Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures around 24,900, with a stop-loss of 24,750, targeting 25,200–25,300. Or, deploy a Bull Call Spread strategy to maintain a controlled risk-reward profile: Buy 1 lot of 25,000 strike Call at Rs 175–165 and sell 1 lot of 25,300 strike Call at Rs 60–70 (June 12 expiry). Breakeven is 25,115. Maximum risk is Rs 8,625 and maximum reward is Rs 13,875.

Anshul Jain, Head of Research at Lakshmishree Investments

For the third consecutive week, Nifty has closed with an inside bar, signalling tight consolidation near its peak. A breakout above 25,116 could trigger a swift rally towards 25,350, with an extended target of 25,848.

Immediate support levels lie at 24,850 and 24,600. With considerable short positions still open, a breakout could act as a jet propeller, fueling a sharp upward move.

Key Resistance: 25,116, 25,350

Key Support: 24,850, 24,600

Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures on dips toward 24,850, with a stop-loss at 24,800, or initiate on breakout above 25,116 for a target of 25,350.

Bank Nifty - Outlook and Positioning

Osho Krishan, Chief Manager - Technical & Derivative Research at Angel One

After a month-long consolidation, Bank Nifty has resumed its primary uptrend with a decisive breakout. The index consistently held above the 20-DEMA during consolidation and has now entered uncharted territory.

With the breakout and a bullish candlestick pattern, the uptrend is likely to continue. The next potential target is 58,500 (golden Fibonacci retracement), with interim resistance near 57,500. On the downside, 56,000–55,800 now serves as strong support.

Key Resistance: 57,500, 58,500

Key Support: 56,000, 55,800

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures around 56,000, with a stop-loss of 55,500, for a target of 57,500.

Rajesh Palviya, Senior Vice President Research (Head Technical Derivatives) at Axis Securities

Bank Nifty gained 829 points on the week. The weekly chart shows a strong bullish candle with a higher high and higher low pattern, closing above the previous week’s high—signaling a strengthening trend.

The index also broke out above a bullish flag pattern near 55,900, confirming continuation of the medium-term uptrend. A sustained move above 57,000 could lead to a rally toward 57,400–58,000.

On the downside, a break below 56,150 could trigger profit booking, pulling the index towards 55,500–55,000. For the week ahead, expect a trading range of 58,000–55,000, with a bullish bias. The weekly RSI remains above its reference line, reaffirming momentum.

Key Resistance: 56,800, 57,000

Key Support: 56,300, 56,000

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures near 56,400, with a stop-loss at 56,200, targeting 56,800–57,000.

Anshul Jain, Head of Research at Lakshmishree Investments

Bank Nifty has broken out of a six-week tight closing pattern, resembling a rounding bottom on the daily chart. The breakout came despite FIIs holding heavy short positions, indicating a classic short trap.

With a fresh all-time high, the momentum strongly favors the bulls. The breakout sets the stage for a rally toward 56,750 in the near term, with the broader breakout target standing at 57,500.

Immediate support lies between 56,120–56,000, offering a solid base for continued upside. The combination of technical breakout and trapped shorts makes for a potent setup for sustained gains.

Key Resistance: 56,750, 57,500

Key Support: 56,116, 56,000

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures towards 56,200-56,000 zone with a stop-loss below 55,980 for target of 57,500.

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