Trading Plan: Can Nifty 50 defend 23,000, Bank Nifty hold above 50,600 post Trump announces 26% discounted reciprocal tariff on India?

Nifty Trading Plan

The Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty both rebounded on April 2 after a sharp fall the previous day, forming bullish candlestick patterns on the daily charts. However, the India VIX sustaining above short-term moving averages ahead of Trump's tariff announcements signals some caution for the bulls. US President Donald Trump announced a 26% "discounted" reciprocal tariff on India, and 25% tariffs on all foreign-made automobiles. According to experts, if the Nifty 50 decisively breaks 23,130 (Tuesday’s low), a fall toward 23,000-22,900 can’t be ruled out. However, on the upside, 23,500 is expected to act as immediate resistance. The Bank Nifty may find support at the 50,700-50,600 zone in case of a correction. If it rebounds, resistance could be seen at the 51,700-51,800 area.

On Wednesday, April 2, the Nifty 50 closed at 23,332, rising 167 points, while the Bank Nifty climbed 521 points to finish at 51,348. The market breadth remained positive, with 1,951 shares advancing compared to 640 shares under pressure.

Nifty Outlook and Strategy

Sudeep Shah, the Deputy Vice President and Head of Technical and Derivative Research at SBI Securities

Recently, the benchmark index Nifty has failed to sustain above its prior swing high of 23,807 and witnessed a throwback. On Wednesday, the index took support in the 23,160-23,130 zone, which is the confluence of the 20-day and 50-day EMA and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of its prior upward rally. It then witnessed a pullback rally. On a daily scale, it has formed an Inside Bar-like candlestick pattern, signaling a weakening of bearish momentum. Notably, this development comes just ahead of US President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariff announcement.

Considering this chart setup, the index’s next move will be crucial in determining whether it resumes its upward trajectory or faces renewed selling pressure. A decisive breakout in either direction could set the tone for the coming sessions. Talking about crucial levels, the 23,160-23,130 zone will act as crucial support for the index. If the index slips below the 23,130 level, the next crucial support is at 22,900.

On the upside, the 23,460-23,490 zone will act as an immediate hurdle. If the index surges above 23,490, it is likely to resume its northward journey and test the level of 23,650, followed by 23,800 in the short term.

Key Resistance: 23,490, 23,650, 23,800

Key Support: 23,130, 22,900

Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures between 23,400-23,435, with a stop-loss of 23,300, targeting 23,650-23,700.

Jatin Gedia, Technical Research Analyst at Mirae Asset Sharekhan

On the daily charts, the Nifty has managed to hold the support zone of 23,150-23,100 and has witnessed buying interest on Wednesday. We expect the Nifty to consolidate in the range of 23,000-23,650 with high intraday volatility. In terms of levels, 23,150-23,100 will act as a very crucial support level, and 23,550-23,600 will act as an immediate hurdle. A move beyond 23,600 shall signal the resumption of the next leg of the upmove towards 24,000-24,200.

Key Resistance: 23,550, 23,600

Key Support: 23,150, 23,100

Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures with a stop-loss of 23,150, targeting 23,870-24,000.

Vidnyan S Sawant, Head of Research at GEPL Capital

Last week, the Nifty index faced resistance at the crucial 23,800 level, leading to a market correction. The index formed a Shooting Star candlestick pattern last week, followed by a continuation of selling pressure this week, signaling weakness at higher levels. On the daily charts, Nifty found support at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of 23,130 and rebounded. Meanwhile, the momentum indicator RSI remains above 55 and is trending upward, suggesting a positive bias.

Key Resistance: 23,870, 24,250

Key Support: 23,100, 22,800

Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures above 23,550 for a target of 23,870 and 24,250 with a stop-loss of 23,300.

Bank Nifty - Outlook and Positioning

Sudeep Shah, the Deputy Vice President and Head of Technical and Derivative Research at SBI Securities

On Wednesday, the Bank Nifty witnessed a gap-up opening and marked a gradual higher top and higher bottom on a lower timeframe. It ended the session with a gain of over 1 percent and formed a bullish candlestick. The most interesting observation is that the daily RSI has taken support near the 60 mark and rebounded, which is a bullish sign as per RSI range shift theory. Currently, the index is trading above its short- and long-term moving averages, reinforcing its positive momentum. If this strength is sustained, the Bank Nifty could continue its upward trajectory in the sessions ahead.

Talking about crucial levels, the 50,800-50,700 zone will act as crucial support for the index. If the index slips below the 50,700 level, the next crucial support is at the 50,300 level. On the upside, the 51,600-51,700 zone will act as an immediate hurdle. If the index sustains above the 51,700 level, it is likely to resume its upward journey and test the levels of 52,500, followed by 53,200 in the short term.

Key Support: 50,800, 50,700, 50,300

Key Resistance: 51,600, 51,700, 52,500

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures between 51,550-51,640, with a stop-loss of 51,200, targeting 52,160.

Jatin Gedia, Technical Research Analyst at Mirae Asset Sharekhan

Bank Nifty has been the leader of the recent rally. Over the past five trading sessions, it has been in the process of consolidation, which has likely matured because the hourly momentum indicator has triggered a positive crossover, signaling a buy. Prices have held on to the 50,800-50,600 zone, which coincides with the gap area formed on March 24. A breach below this zone can lead to a decline toward 50,000-49,800. On the upside, a move above 51,680-51,700 will signal the beginning of the next leg of the upmove toward 53,000.

Key Resistance: 51,600, 51,700

Key Support: 51,000, 50,900

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures with a stop-loss of 50,600, targeting 52,500.

Vidnyan S Sawant, Head of Research at GEPL Capital

On the weekly timeframe, the Bank Nifty has been holding firmly above its 20-week SMA for the past three weeks, reflecting strong resilience and outperforming the benchmark Nifty. On the daily charts, the index formed a Change in Polarity (CIP) pattern precisely at our first support level of 50,600, as highlighted in the previous report. Additionally, the RSI indicator remains steady above 60, indicating strong positive momentum.

Key Resistance: 52,100, 52,850

Key Support: 50,600, 49,700

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures above 52,100 for a target of 52,850 and 53,800, with a stop-loss of 51,550.

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