Technical View: Unstoppable bulls eye 25,550 for Nifty; break above 55,600 could ignite new rally in Bank Nifty

Nifty Outlook for September 18

The bulls seem unstoppable, especially after the recent break, driving the Nifty 50 above the 25,250 hurdle, with a 0.4 percent gain on September 17. Banking stocks, which hold significant weight in the Nifty 50, have also joined the rally.

Experts now expect the Nifty 50 to move toward the 25,550–25,600 zone, as surpassing this range could open the door to the June swing high of 25,669. However, the 25,150 level is likely to act as immediate support, followed by the critical 25,000 support level.

The Nifty 50 opened higher at 25,277 and maintained an upward trajectory throughout the session. The index reached an intraday high of 25,346.50, before closing at 25,330, up 91 points. This formed a bullish candle on the daily timeframe, continuing the higher highs-higher lows structure.

The index touched the upper line of Bollinger Bands, and the RSI climbed to 66.15. The MACD remained strong, with further strength in the histogram, all of which suggest a healthy market run.

According to Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities, the market is in an uptrend continuation pattern, with resistances being surpassed one after another. Therefore, further upside in Nifty is expected in the coming sessions. He anticipates the index to advance toward the 25,600 level in the near term, with immediate support at the 25,150 level.

The weekly options data indicates that Nifty 50 may face the next resistance at 25,500, followed by 26,000. However, the 25,300-25,200 zone could act as near-term support.

The maximum call open interest is concentrated at the 26,000 strike, followed by the 25,500 and 25,400 strikes, with the highest call writing at the 25,500, 25,400, and 25,300 strikes. On the put side, the maximum put open interest is at the 25,300 strike, followed by the 25,200 and 25,000 strikes, with the highest put writing at the 25,300, 25,250, and 25,400 strikes.

Bank Nifty

The Bank Nifty has maintained its upward move for the 11th consecutive session, rising 346 points to 55,493, with above-average volumes and forming a bullish candle on the daily charts. The index is now trading well above all key moving averages and may be approaching 55,600, the 50 percent Fibonacci retracement of the July high to the September low.

Importantly, prices are now trading above the midline of Bollinger Bands, indicating that the short-term trend has turned positive.

Price action suggests the index is attempting to reverse its short-term weakness and build a stronger base, according to Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical Research and Derivatives at SBI Securities.

Momentum indicators are also turning supportive. The RSI has moved closer to 60, indicating improving buying strength, while the ADX shows DI+ leading DI–, suggesting that a trend reversal is underway.

According to Sudeep, the 55,600–55,700 zone will act as immediate resistance. A sustained move above 55,700 could lead to a continuation of the uptrend toward 56,200. On the downside, the 55,300–55,200 zone is likely to act as support. Any pullback towards this zone could offer buying opportunities on dips.

Meanwhile, the India VIX, which measures expected market volatility, fell 0.24 percent to 10.25, consistently providing comfort for the bulls.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.