Technical View: Nifty needs to hold 25,000 for bulls to eye 25,150; Bank Nifty above 20-DEMA, VIX at 17-month low

Nifty Outlook for September 12

Bulls appear unwilling to give up control of the market to bears, having led the charge for the seventh consecutive session on September 10. Their momentum finally drove the Nifty 50 above the 25,000 mark on a closing basis for the first time since August 21. The index closed above the falling resistance trendline and also negated the lower high–lower low formation, supported by a bullish crossover of the 10-day EMA over the 20- and 50-day EMAs — all signaling a positive trend.

Momentum indicators and oscillators also maintained a positive crossover. Hence, if the index sustains above the 25,000 level in the upcoming sessions, 25,150 could act as an immediate target, followed by 25,250 as a crucial hurdle for the continuation of the upward trend. On the downside, 24,800 is expected to serve as the key support zone, according to experts.

After experiencing morning volatility, the Nifty 50 gained strength in the afternoon and closed 32 points higher at 25,006, forming a bullish candle with a minor upper shadow on the daily charts. This indicates a positive trend despite some selling pressure at higher levels amid rangebound trading.

According to Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities, the underlying trend of the Nifty remains positive, albeit with choppy movement.

“Any failure to move sharply above the important resistance of 25,000–25,100 levels in the next 1–2 sessions could open short-term weakness in the market. Immediate support is at 24,800,” he said.

Options Data

Weekly options data indicated that the Nifty is likely to trade in the 24,800–25,500 range in the upcoming sessions.

The maximum Call open interest was observed at the 25,500 strike, followed by the 25,000 and 25,200 strikes. Maximum Call writing was seen at the 25,400, 25,500, and 25,200 strikes.

On the Put side, the 25,000 strike holds the maximum Put open interest, followed by 24,900 and 24,800 strikes. Maximum Put writing was observed at the 25,000, 24,900, and 24,950 strikes.

Bank Nifty

The Bank Nifty also continued its uptrend, climbing 134 points to close at 54,670, forming a bullish candle on the daily timeframe. It closed above the 20-day EMA and sustained above the 10-day EMA, both of which are considered crucial for further upward movement.

According to Sudeep Shah, Head – Technical Research and Derivatives at SBI Securities, the 100-day EMA zone of 54,800–54,900 will act as an immediate hurdle for the index. Any sustainable move above the 54,900 level will lead to a further upside rally up to the 55,400 level.

On the downside, the 54,400–54,300 zone will act as a crucial support area for the index, he added.

India VIX

Meanwhile, the India VIX, the fear index, fell further to close at 10.36, its lowest closing level since April 24, 2024 — nearly a 17-month low — down 1.68 percent. This decline indicates increased comfort for bulls and greater market stability, along with a high level of investor confidence.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.