Technical View: Nifty eyes 24,900-25,000, but consolidation may delay breakout

Nifty Outlook for September 9

The Nifty 50 erased gains in the final hour of trade on September 8 due to profit booking at higher levels, ultimately closing the day with moderate gains. The index continues to face strong resistance around the 24,900–25,000 zone, near the downward-sloping resistance trendline. However, it managed to sustain above the 10- and 20-day EMAs and the midline of the Bollinger Bands, all of which converged around the 24,700 mark.

This suggests that the 24,700 level remains crucial for a gradual upward journey in the Nifty 50 toward the 24,900–25,000 resistance zone. However, the index is likely to consolidate further before attempting to surpass this level. A decisive breakdown below 24,700 could drag the index toward the next key support zone of 24,600–24,500, according to experts.

On the day, the Nifty 50 opened higher and gradually extended its uptrend to an intraday high of 24,886 but faced profit booking, erasing 113 points from the day's peak before closing at 24,773—up 32 points. The index formed a small bearish candle with a long upper shadow on the daily chart, indicating selling pressure at higher levels amid consolidation and volatility.

Momentum indicators remain supportive. The RSI jumped to 50.39, and the Stochastic RSI continues to show a positive crossover. The MACD also maintains its bullish crossover, with the histogram indicating further strengthening.

According to Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities, the underlying trend for Nifty remains positive, albeit with choppy movement.

“Having been placed below the crucial overhead resistance around the 24,900–25,000 levels, there is a possibility of further consolidation or minor weakness in the next 1–2 sessions. Immediate support is placed at 24,620. A decisive breakout above 25,000 could trigger sharp buying in the market,” he said.

As per weekly options data, the Nifty 50 is likely to trade in a broad range of 24,500–25,000 in the near term.

On the options front, the maximum Call open interest is seen at the 25,000 strike, followed by 24,900 and 25,500 strikes. The maximum Call writing was observed at the 24,900 strike, followed by 24,850 and 24,950. On the Put side, the 24,500 strike holds the highest open interest, followed by 24,700 and 24,800. The maximum Put writing was noted at the 24,800 strike, followed by 24,700 and 24,850.

Bank Nifty

The Bank Nifty also witnessed profit booking at higher levels, shedding over 300 points from the day's high before ending the session with a gain of 72 points at 54,187. The index formed a Doji-like candlestick pattern on the daily timeframe, indicating indecision between bulls and bears. Despite the gains, it remained below the midline of the Bollinger Bands and under the 20-, 50-, and 100-day EMAs—levels seen as critical for further upside.

The banking index has failed to close decisively above the 54,400–54,500 resistance zone for three consecutive sessions. Although it has tested this zone twice recently, stiff selling pressure has prevented a breakout.

In terms of indicators, the RSI has improved from 27 to 39 over the past seven sessions, reflecting a mild pickup in momentum. However, the ADX has remained flat, indicating low trend strength and subdued volatility.

According to Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical Research and Derivatives at SBI Securities, the 53,900–54,000 zone will act as crucial support. “A sustained move below 53,900 could trigger a sharper decline toward 53,500, followed by 53,100 in the short term. On the upside, the 54,400–54,500 zone will serve as key resistance,” he said.

Meanwhile, India VIX, the volatility index, remained near the lower zone despite a 0.53 percent uptick, closing at 10.84. This suggests overall market stability.

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