Technical View: Bears could gain upper hand if Nifty breaks Monday’s low; 50-DEMA key for Bank Nifty

Nifty outlook for September 23

The Nifty 50 extended its downward move for a second consecutive session on September 22, marking a negative start to the week. The decline followed an announcement by US President Donald Trump regarding a sharp increase in H-1B visa application fees.

The index approached the 25,150 mark—considered the breakout level of the recent uptrend—during Monday's correction. This level is expected to be a crucial zone for determining the market's next direction.

If the index manages to hold above 25,150, the 25,450–25,500 zone will be the key area to watch on the upside. However, a decisive fall below 25,150 could open the door to further declines towards the 25,000–24,900 zone, which is seen as crucial support, according to experts.

On the day, the Nifty 50 opened lower at 25,238 and remained under pressure throughout the session, hitting an intraday low of 25,151. It closed at 25,202, down 125 points (0.5 percent), and formed a bearish candle with a long upper shadow and a minor lower shadow on the daily chart.

Technically, this market action suggests the continuation of the short-term downward correction, with a "sell on rise" approach prevailing.

Despite the near-term consolidation, the overall trend still favours the bulls, as the index remains well above all key moving averages. Additionally, the MACD and histogram are holding above the zero line with a positive crossover. However, the RSI has dropped below the 60 mark, to 58.19, and is on the verge of a negative crossover, indicating weakening momentum.

According to Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities, the medium- to long-term trend of the Nifty remains positive. He views the current weakness as a buy-on-dips opportunity in the short term.

"Nifty is expected to find support around the 25,000 level and is likely to bounce back from the lows. Immediate resistance is placed at 25,450," he said.

Weekly options data suggest that the Nifty 50 may find support in the 25,150–25,000 zone, with resistance in the 25,400–25,500 zone in the near term.

The maximum Call open interest is at the 25,500 strike, followed by 25,300 and 25,400 strikes. The maximum Call writing has occurred at the 25,300, 25,200, and 25,250 strikes.

On the Put side, the 25,200 strike holds the highest open interest, followed by 25,000 and 25,100. The maximum Put writing is seen at the 25,200, 25,150, and 25,100 strikes.

Bank Nifty

The Bank Nifty also remained under pressure for the second straight session, falling 174 points to 55,285. It formed a bearish candle with a long upper shadow on the daily timeframe, indicating selling pressure at higher levels and a lack of follow-through on intraday gains.

The index fell below its 5-day EMA and approached the 50-day EMA at 55,192, which is expected to be a key level for determining the next directional move.

Technically, this price action reflects hesitation among buyers and a possible shift in short-term sentiment, said Sudeep Shah, Head – Technical Research and Derivatives at SBI Securities.

The daily RSI stands at 54.47 and continues to trend downward, suggesting a gradual loss of bullish momentum. This indicates that the index may remain under pressure unless fresh buying emerges.

In terms of key levels, the support zone lies between 54,800 and 54,700, while the immediate resistance zone is seen between 55,600 and 55,700, according to Shah.

Meanwhile, the India VIX climbed sharply by 5.92 percent to 10.56 and approached its short-term moving averages, which may cause some discomfort for the bulls.

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