Stock Market Today: Top 10 things to know before the market opens

Dalal Street

The benchmark Sensex and Nifty indices are likely to open marginally higher on October 13 as trends in the GIFT Nifty indicate a positive start for the broader index with a gain of 14 points.

The BSE Sensex fell 65 points to 66,408, while the Nifty50 dropped 17 points to 19,794 and formed a bearish candlestick pattern with minor upper and lower shadows, which resembles the spinning top kind of pattern on the daily charts, indicating indecisiveness among bulls and bears about future market trend.

"Throughout the session on Thursday, the Nifty barely moved outside the previous day's range. Looking ahead, we can expect the market to continue this rangebound movement until Nifty makes a decisive breakout either above 19,850 or below 19,750," Rupak De, senior technical analyst at LKP Securities, said.

The pivot point calculator indicates that the Nifty may be taking support at 19,776, followed by 19,760 and 19,733. On the higher side, 19,830 can be an immediate resistance, followed by 19,847 and 19,874.

The GIFT Nifty indicates a positive start for the broader index with a gain of 14 points. GIFT Nifty futures stood at 19,688 points after making a high of 19,696 points.

Trade setup for Friday: Top 15 things to know before the opening bell

Stock futures were little changed on Thursday evening as traders braced for major bank earnings. S&P 500 futures and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures oscillated near the flat line. Nasdaq 100 futures inched higher by 0.07 percent.

All three major indexes ended the day’s trading session in the red, with the Dow dropping more than 173 points. The S&P 500 slid 0.62 percent, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite lost 0.63 percent.

Even though the three major averages ended Thursday with losses, they are each on pace for weekly gains. The S&P 500 is up 0.9 percent, while the Dow is up nearly 0.7 percent on the week. The Nasdaq Composite is the outperformer of the three, up 1 percent through Thursday’s close.

This is the third positive week in a row for the Nasdaq, and the second straight positive week for the S&P 500. The Dow is also set to snap a string of three straight weekly declines.

European stock markets closed higher Thursday as they built on positive global momentum this week. The regional Stoxx 600 index ended 0.1 percent higher, with sectors spread across positive and negative territory.

Oil and gas stocks rose 1.3 percent even as the International Energy Agency warned of huge uncertainty in oil markets due to the Israel-Hamas war. Travel and leisure dropped 0.9 percent as multiple airlines suspended flights to Israel.

Focus has been on whether the US Federal Reserve may be through with interest rate hikes after a series of dovish remarks from officials, even as the producer price index came in hotter than expected and Fed minutes suggested one more hike may be needed.

Hong Kong stocks jumped nearly 2 percent in the last hour of trading, leading wider gains in the Asia-Pacific region as shares of big Chinese banks surged. Investors looked ahead to key US consumer inflation data for clues on the trajectory of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index climbed 1.86 percent, while China’s benchmark CSI 300 ended 0.95 percent higher at 3,702.38. In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 added 0.21 percent to close at 7103.1. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 ended 1.75 percent higher at 32,494.66, while South Korea’s Kospi finished up 1.21 percent at 2,479.82. Both benchmarks were at their respective highest closing levels since September 25.

Overnight in the US, all three major indexes closed in the green. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.19 percent, or 65.57 points, to close at 33,804.87. The S&P 500 gained 0.43 percent, ending at 4,376.95. The Nasdaq Composite added 0.71 percent to close at 13,659.68. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones are forecasting a 0.3 percent month-over-month increase for the upcoming US inflation data, and a 3.6 percent rise from the prior year.

India’s central bank is expected to accelerate a key process of vetting IDBI Bank’s potential buyers and complete it by October end, helping speed up the sale of a majority stake in the lender, two government sources said.

The federal government, which owns 45.48 percent of IDBI Bank, and the state-owned Life Insurance Corp of India, which holds 49.24 percent, together plan to sell 60.7 percent of the lender. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) began the vetting process known as ’fit and proper criteria’ in April, after Kotak Mahindra Bank, the Prem Watsa-backed CSB Bank and Emirates NBD submitted their initial bid to acquire a majority stake in IDBI Bank.

The RBI normally takes about 12-18 months to complete the assessment before allowing an entity to run a bank. ”In discussions with the government, the RBI has conveyed that the fit and proper assessment would be complete by month-end,” said one of the two government officials, who did not want to be named.

Infosys’ September quarter numbers beat the consensus expectations but some negatives such as narrowing revenue growth guidance and weak outlook may keep the stock under pressure when it opens for trade.

The stock saw sharp selling in New York-listed Infosys ADR shares that have fallen about 7 percent as of 7.30 pm (India time) to $16.25.

“The company trimming its revenue guidance would be negative for the stock,” said Prashanth Tapse, Senior VP (Research), Mehta Equities. “Overall results are not so bad but discounted in prices. Revised guidance would put pressure on prices to sustain while it has maintained margins. Technically the last-minute fall in prices shows that results were not in favour of bulls, hence a gap-down opening between Rs 1,400-1,420 could be seen in the opening trade.”

Ahead of the earnings announcement, Infosys closed at Rs 1464.55 on BSE, down about 2 percent. Infosys narrowed its revenue growth guidance for the full year at the upper end and has now guided for revenue growth of 1-2.5 percent for the full year. This comes after it sharply slashed the guidance last quarter to 1-3.5 percent from 4-7 percent.

The fall in India's headline retail inflation in September 2023 was well below market expectations but uncertainty still remains, experts said. Additionally, experts said that the central bank is expected to maintain a prolonged pause in repo rate in the fiscal year (FY) 2023-24.

“The moderation in core inflation indicates that generalization of price pressures has not taken place. Hence, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expected to remain on prolonged pause in FY24,” said Gaura Sen Gupta, Economist, IDFC First Bank.

Upasna Bhardwaj, Chief Economist, Kotak Mahindra Bank said, "The CPI inflation moderated more than our expectations. However, higher crude oil prices and persistence of price pressures on cereals and pulses remains to be watched for. Overall we expect the MPC to remain in a prolonged pause mode at least through mid next year."

India's industrial output grew by 10.3 percent in August, according to data released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation on October 12. At 10.3 percent, the latest industrial growth figure as per the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) is the highest in 14 months.

It is also well above the consensus estimate of 9.1 percent. Industrial growth had come in at 5.7 percent in July - now revised to 6.0 percent - and was -0.7 percent in August 2022. For the first five months of 2023-24, India's industrial output is up 6.1 percent year-on-year, down from 7.7 percent in April-August 2022 when the data was boosted by a favorable base effect.

HCLTech’s net headcount addition has declined by 2,299 in the second quarter ended September 30 for the fiscal year 2024, as the company is focusing on improving utilization rates to maintain operating margin guidance amidst a tough business environment.

Fresher addition for the quarter stood at 3,630, up from last quarter’s 1,597. Total headcount stood at 221,139. HCLTech plans to onboard 10,000 freshers in FY24. This is the second consecutive quarter of headcount decline for HCLTech. The company’s headcount in Q1 had dropped by 2,506. The company, however, added 1,597 freshers during Q1. HCLTech’s attrition for Q2 stood at 14.2 percent compared to 16.3 percent reported last quarter. In Q2FY23, attrition was at 23.8 percent.

Oil prices rose on Thursday, reversing earlier falls, on expectations that U.S. interest rates had peaked, but a lower demand growth forecast for next year from the International Energy Agency and higher U.S. inventories limited further gains.

Brent futures rose by 57 cents, or 0.66 percent, to $86.32 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude gained 21 cents, or 0.25 percent, to $83.68 a barrel. World shares rose and the dollar and bond market borrowing costs held steady ahead of U.S. inflation data and European Central Bank meeting minutes that will add to the hotly contested debate on where interest rates are heading.

The Dollar index traded 0.06 percent lower in futures at 106.49, whereas the value of one dollar hovered near Rs 83.29.

Gold prices pared gains on Thursday as dollar and Treasury yields ticked higher after U.S. consumer prices rose more than expected in September and raised worries that the Federal Reserve could keep rates higher for some time.

Spot gold fell slightly by 0.1 percent to $1,872.29 per ounce, after hitting its highest level since Sept. 27 earlier in the session. US gold futures dipped 0.1 percent at $1,885.50. The consumer price index increased 0.4 percent last month after a 0.3 percent gain in August, the Labour Department said. However, year-on-year consumer prices have come down from a peak of 9.1 percent in June 2022.

“The warm CPI print might be enough to slow gold’s formidable rally into a consolidation but in itself shouldn’t trigger a serious selloff especially given high geopolitical tensions,” said Tai Wong, a New York-based independent metals trader.

Foreign institutional investors (FII) sold shares worth Rs 1,862.57 crore, while domestic institutional investors (DII) bought Rs 1,532.08 crore worth of stocks on October 12, provisional data from the National Stock Exchange (NSE) showed.