Closing Bell: Nifty at 19,500, Sensex up 340 pts led by oil & gas, power, realty

Taking Stock: Up, up and away. Sensex gains 340 points, Nifty conquers 19,500

Among sectors, Power, Oil & Gas and Realty were up 2 percent each, while Auto and Healthcare added 1 percent each.... Read More

The Indian rupee registered the biggest single-day loss in a month against the US dollar following the hawkish June FOMC minutes and short covering from the rupee bulls. The local units depreciated around a percentage point from Monday’s low of 81.76 to today's high of 82.55.

Spot USDINR is expected to head towards 82.80 while expected to find support around 82.10.

While several Asian and European markets languished in negative territory, our benchmark indices notched up impressive gains and hit fresh highs on broad-based buying. While economic indicators remain on sound footing, the market is looking forward to optimism in corporate earnings. Technically, after a strong opening the index successfully cleared the short-term resistance of 19435/65675. Moreover, post breakout it intensified the positive momentum.

In addition, on daily charts, the index has formed a bullish candle and on intraday charts it is holding higher bottom formation that also support further uptrend from the current levels. For the trend following traders now, 19375/65350 would be the sacrosanct support level. Above which, the market could rally till 19575-19625/66000-66100. On the flip side, below 19375/65350 uptrend would be vulnerable. Below the same, we could see a quick one intraday correction till 19325-19300/65150-65000.

Markets edged higher after two days of pause and gained nearly half a percent. After the flat start, buying in select heavyweights tried to push the Nifty higher but profit taking at the higher levels capped the momentum. It finally managed to end closer to the day’s high at 19497.30 levels. Meanwhile, the sectoral trend was mixed wherein realty, energy and auto posted strong gains while IT and FMCG traded subdued. The broader indices also witnessed decent traction and ended higher in the range of 0.8%-1%.

The broad-based participation combined with favorable global cues would help in keeping the tone positive. We thus reiterate our view to focus more on stock selection and keep trailing stop losses on rise for existing longs. On the index front, Nifty has immediate support at 19,300 now and major at 18,900 levels.

Foreign investors continue to provide unwavering support to the domestic market, helping to sustain the ongoing rally despite weak global cues. India’s underperformance during the year is expected to reverse moving ahead. The mid- and small-cap segments have outperformed the benchmark index, with realty, oil & gas, power and consumption stocks leading the sectorial rally as provisional & economic data suggest a good Q1FY24 results. However, global markets are displaying a negative trend, influenced by hawkish FOMC minutes and US-China tensions.

Nifty opened on a flattish note, but it was in no mood to give up the gains it has enjoyed in the last few days. After 2 days of consolidation, the index came back strong and closed near high point of the day. The index was seen gaining strength as the day progressed even when Bank Nifty was underperforming, thanks to the strong push by Reliance Industries with support from auto stocks like M&M and Tata Motors.

The index has, however, witnessed negative divergence in RSI on the hourly charts which may restrict the pace of Nifty going forward. On 240mins charts, RSI has approached 84 levels which is near a 3-year resistance of 85-87 zone. This, combined with the rising trendline hurdle at 19600 can result in some profit booking in the index in the coming days. The immediate supports are placed at 19330 while medium term supports are placed at 19150-19200 levels.

The Bank Nifty index has shown a resilient performance as the bulls managed to hold the support level of 45000, which is considered a crucial make-or-break level for the index. The bears have been active around the 45500 level. However, if the index successfully surpasses this level on a closing basis, it is likely to witness further upward movement toward the 46000 level. Given the overall bullish undertone, it is advisable to adopt a buy-on-dip approach as long as the mentioned support level of 45000 is held.

The Nifty reached another all-time high after two days of consolidation, indicating a breakout in the upward direction. The overall trend appears positive as the index comfortably sits above a key short-term moving average (50DMA).

The immediate resistance is visible at 19500; a decisive breakout above 19500 may take the index towards 19725. Support on the lower end is pegged at 19350-19300.

Indian rupee ended 27 paise lower at 82.49 per dollar versus previous close of 82.22.

Benchmark indices ended on a strong note with Nifty at 19,500 on July 6.

At close, the Sensex was up 339.60 points or 0.52% at 65,785.64, and the Nifty was up 98.80 points or 0.51% at 19,497.30. About 1936 shares advanced, 1428 shares declined, and 133 shares unchanged.

Biggest gainers on the Nifty included M&M, Apollo Hospitals, Power Grid Corporation, Reliance Industries and Tata Motors, while losers were Eicher Motors, HDFC Life Insurance, Maruti Suzuki, HCL Technologies and Bajaj Finance.

Among sectors, Power, Oil & Gas and Realty were up 2 percent each, while Auto and Healthcare added 1 percent each.

The BSE midcap index rose 0.8 percent and smallcap index added 0.7 percent.

Poonawalla Fincorp, an Adar Poonawalla-controlled non-banking finance company reported its highest-ever quarterly disbursements amounting to Rs 7,050 crore for the April-June period for FY24.

This implies a growth of about 2.5 times on a year-on-year basis.

As per a business update on NBFC, total disbursements grew about 143 percent year-on-year to Rs 7,050 crore in the June quarter compared to Rs 2,901 crore in the same period in the previous year.

Disbursements were up 11 percent sequentially.

-Overweight rating, target at Rs 11,164 per share
-With Invicto, Maruti Suzuki targets premium of >Rs 20 lakh category
-Maruti Suzuki has already received 6,000 bookings for Invicto
-Believe model will remain a low-volume, high-ASP model
-Mix and market share improvement keeps us overweight

Indian Rupee depreciated on the strong US Dollar and surge in crude oil prices. Hawkish FOMC minutes led to risk aversion in global markets. FOMC minutes show the policymakers looking for further rate hikes before the year ends, and the central bank’s determination to further tighten the monetary policy. Global markets also remained weak as services and composite PMI from most economies fell short of forecast.

We expect Rupee to trade with a negative bias on risk aversion in global markets and a strong Dollar. However, positive domestic markets and sustained FII inflows may support Rupee at lower levels. Market participants may remain cautious ahead of the labour market and ISM services PMI data from the US today. We expect the USDINR spot to trade between 82.10 to 83 in the near term.