US analyst explains Taliban's 'logic' as Pak-Afghanistan talks hit deadend: 'No surprise'

American analyst Michael Kugelman has said the collapse of talks between Afghanistan and Pakistan in Istanbul comes as little surprise, saying that multiple reasons were behind the failure to reach a peaceful agreement.

Kugelman, Director of the South Asia Institute at the Washington-based Wilson Center, said it was difficult to see any incentive for the Taliban to act against the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), even in the face of potential Pakistani air strikes or the risk of escalating conflict.

Pakistan has long accused Kabul of giving safe haven to TTP, which has opened up a front against Islamabad over the last few years and targeted security forces with deadly terror attacks.

No surprise the Afghanistan-Pakistan talks have (for now) failed. It’s hard to think of a single reason why, from the Taliban’s perspective, it makes sense to curb the TTP. That includes the risk of inviting additional Pakistani air strikes or even a conflict w/Pak. Here’s why.

— Michael Kugelman (@MichaelKugelman) October 29, 2025

The US analyst noted that the Taliban could use any Pakistani military action to rally domestic support and strengthen its global legitimacy, as Afghan public sentiment would likely turn against Pakistan and back Taliban retaliation.

Kugelman added that while such logic may not be sustainable — especially if Islamabad were to support anti-Taliban armed groups or directly target the Taliban regime — it appears that such possibilities are not currently factored into the Taliban’s calculus on the TTP issue.

The collapse of talks amid a fragile ceasefire has already raised the specter of war in the region, just days after the two countries were embroilled in deadly border clashes. Islamabad has claimed that the two sides were close to reaching a written agreement in the Turkish capital but the Afghan negotiators backtracked after contacting Kabul during the discussions.

For the Taliban, Pakistani mil strikes can be leveraged as a rally-around-flag op & help gain more legitimacy from a public that would reject Pak actions & support Taliban retaliations. And they’d be ok with a conflict they don’t start. They’re militants & insurgents, after all. — Michael Kugelman (@MichaelKugelman) October 29, 2025

On Wednesday, Pakistan defence minister Khawaja Asif warned Afghanistan that any new “terrorist or suicide attack” by TTP on Pakistani soil would draw a stern response.

In a post on X, Asif told Afghanistan’s Taliban government that “any terrorist attack or suicide bombing inside Pakistan shall give you the bitter taste of such misadventures.”

There was no immediate comment from Kabul on the collapse of peace talks or on Asif’s remarks, but Afghanistan’s state broadcaster RTA reported that the negotiations stalled because of what it called “irrational demands” from Pakistan.

Asif, in a strongly worded post on X, also accused Kabul of “blindly pushing Afghanistan into yet another conflict” to preserve what he described as its “usurped rule and war economy.”

“Let me assure them that Pakistan does not require to employ even a fraction of its full arsenal to completely obliterate the Taliban regime and push them back to the caves for hiding,” he said.

Despite the failure of the talks, a ceasefire remained in place, and no new clashes were reported along the border. Both countries have shut all major crossings, leaving hundreds of trucks carrying goods and refugees stranded on each side.