Short call | Are Trump's tariff threats and sliding rupee a double blow for Indian markets? Godrej Properties, Bajaj Auto in focus

Analysts at SBI are predicting that under Trump 2.0, the rupee could depreciate by 8-10 percent

The Indian rupee seems to be on a relentless slide, with the currency hitting a fresh all-time low of 84.76 against the US dollar, a worrying sign for investors as concerns grow about escalating outflows from Indian markets.

The culprit? The return of Donald Trump to the White House, which has thrown the currency markets into turmoil. Trump, in his usual fashion, has threatened BRICS nations with 100 percent tariffs if they dare to create a separate currency in an effort to break away from the dominance of the US dollar.

While the idea of a common BRICS currency seems far-fetched, given the varying stages of economic development within the group, Trump’s influence over the dollar is undeniable, and his rhetoric has sent shockwaves through global markets, particularly the Indian rupee.

Analysts at SBI are predicting that under Trump 2.0, the rupee could depreciate by 8-10 percent, with the average exchange rate possibly reaching between 87-92 against the dollar.

Compounding this, the US dollar remains strong, trading in the range of 106-107, which could lead to more capital outflows as investors flock to dollar-denominated assets. The silver lining? A weaker rupee could offer a boost to exports, but this comes with the downside of inflating the import bill for oil and other critical commodities.

All in all, the Indian rupee is caught in the crossfire of Trump’s economic policies, a firming dollar, and the global market’s shifting tides and this could bring a double blow back home.

Oberoi Realty (Rs 2,168, +5%)

Stock surged after Nomura initiated 'buy' call, forecasting 21 percent upside.

Bull Case: Strong growth visibility with expectations of solid pre-sales and cash generation. Low net debt to equity position places the company on the path to aggressive business development, wrote Nomura.

Bear Case: Weaker-than-expected execution of Oberoi Garden City, Thane which has another three towers awaiting launch. Delay in other project launches can further dent near-term growth visibility and revenue potential.

Bajaj Auto (Rs 9,000; -1.8%)

Shares dipped after the company slashed prices of its Freedom 125, the world's first CNG motorcycle, just five months after its launch.

Bull Case: Exports surged 24 percent year-on-year to 1.80 lakh units in November, boosting total sales by 5 percent to 4.22 lakh units. Company aims to outperform the industry's 6-8 percent growth forecast by leveraging new launches and bolstering its presence in the rapidly growing 125cc and above segment, where it holds a strong 24-25 percent market share.

Bear Case: Despite the festive season, domestic sales dropped 7 percent year-on-year in November, indicating sluggish demand in the local market.

(with inputs from Vaibhavi and Neeshita)