Oil prices to rise once US election results come: Argus Media

The current downward trend in oil is due to the uncertainty over upcoming US elections, believes Azlin Ahmad of Argus Media. Speaking to CNBC-TV18, Ahmad said that prices could reverse trend and move up slightly once the election results come. Donald Trump has openly said that he prefers less regulations in the oil industry while Hillary Clinton is more focused on energy saving methods. Assuming nothing major happens, then oil prices will hover in mid-USD 40 per barrel range. But, if the OPEC implements its promise of output cut, then oil prices could go upto USD 55-57 per barrel in first half of 2017, Ahmad said. Below is the verbatim transcript of Azlin Ahmad’s interview to Manisha Gupta on CNBC-TV18.Q: What has been your sense, the crude oil prices, would they watch more for the Vienna, November 30 meeting or the US Presidential Election is going to be a bigger impact?A: Right now the US elections does have a bit of an impact because uncertainty is also putting a bit of pressure on prices and we have seen oil prices fall quite significantly over the last week from about USD 50 to around the mid USD 40 and that is also because we have seen a lot of bearish news coming to the market particularly big jump in the US crude inventory and Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) production at record high in October 33.94 million barrels per day and all that has just made the market a little bit weary of how successful OPEC can be at the November 30 meeting. So, we will have to wait but we had a lot of bearish news over the last week that has pushed prices low.Below is the verbatim transcript of Azlin Ahmad’s interview to Manisha Gupta on CNBC-TV18.Q: What has been your sense, the crude oil prices, would they watch more for the Vienna, November 30 meeting or the US Presidential Election is going to be a bigger impact?A: Right now the US elections does have a bit of an impact because uncertainty is also putting a bit of pressure on prices and we have seen oil prices fall quite significantly over the last week from about USD 50 to around the mid USD 40 and that is also because we have seen a lot of bearish news coming to the market particularly big jump in the US crude inventory and Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) production at record high in October 33.94 million barrels per day and all that has just made the market a little bit weary of how successful OPEC can be at the November 30 meeting. So, we will have to wait but we had a lot of bearish news over the last week that has pushed prices low.Q: Depending on the US Presidential Election since that is now 3 days away. What is your sense on whether or whichever the candidate does come in whether it is Trump or Clinton do you see the crude oil prices reacting in a certain way depending on who comes?A: I think we may not see a big jump or a big change in oil prices. The only thing is that between Hillary Clinton and Donald trump I think Donald Trump has made it quite public that he prefers to have less regulation in the oil industry. So, that is always something that the industry welcomes. Hillary Clinton has been a bit more focussed on climate change trying to reduce dependence on fossil fuels, use of solar and wind. So, that actually doesn't generate growth in demand in oil industry. But whatever happens with the US election the outcome would probably lead to a slight increase in oil prices. Right now the uncertainty is the one that is one that is pushing oil prices lower.