Moneycontrol Pro Weekender | Looking for structural winners in disrupted markets

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Dear Reader,

Global capital continues to drift in uncertain waters. In the US, consumer resilience—the bedrock of post-COVID recovery—is starting to crack, with analysts warning that households are running out of steam. Europe’s sanctions overdrive may also be losing bite, risking economic blowback without geopolitical payoff. All this while Washington’s new law on stablecoins threatens to reshape the flow of fintech capital across the developing world — including India, where regulatory tightening has already cornered several digital lenders.

With tariff uncertainty still elevated, countries have been busy diversifying their trade, and the India-UK free trade pact, signed this week, is an important step in that direction. We wrote about whether the deal will boost businesses to a new high and the export opportunities it opens up for Indian manufacturing. And, as we pointed out here, it sends out the right cues at the right time. Here’s a list of 10 stocks that could gain from the pact.

Amid the global jitters, India’s macro signals are cautiously optimistic. The RBI’s latest bulletin describes a domestic economy holding firm against global headwinds, backed by moderating inflation and resilient demand indicators. Headline inflation has dipped to its lowest in years, fuelling expectations of further rate cuts and liquidity infusions. This dovish stance is showing up in the markets, where mutual funds are rotating into small-caps, and corporate bond demand is running hot on the back of surplus liquidity. There is, though, some concern on the rupee front, as we wrote here.

This backdrop has coloured the Q1 earnings season in India with shades of cautious cheer. Private banks like ICICI and HDFC Bank posted steady numbers while Mahindra Finance’s rerating hopes now hinge on execution and portfolio diversification. PNB Housing Finance is quietly staging a comeback, supported by improving fundamentals and favourable valuations. Bajaj Finance’s performance too was stable, and we also debated whether there are any re-rating triggers for Yes Bank.

Related stories

Manas Chakravarty

Group Consulting Editor|Moneycontrol

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  Moneycontrol Pro Weekender | Decoding India's Q2 Growth Stunner
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Among corporates, Reliance Industries reaffirmed its transformation with a strong Q1, led by its consumer verticals. Cement major UltraTech held firm, validating its reputation as a bellwether of India’s infrastructure build-out. In contrast, CEAT’s post-Camso acquisition hangover continues, with rising debt and margin pressure. Havells too was hit by weak summer demand, underlining the fragility of consumer-linked cyclicals. Himadri Speciality, though, looks to be strategically placed in the battery chemicals value chain—a potential long-term winner from the global energy transition.

IPO markets remained active but selective. Brigade Hotel Ventures and Indiqube drew investor attention, though both raise the classic IPO question: Is growth priced in? Execution-heavy names like Eternal and GNG Electronics may tempt risk-tolerant investors while more proven performers like Polycab continued their upward march in Q1, delivering scale with consistency.

IT services, however, remain under scrutiny. Infosys posted a good quarter and announced the formation of a global Enterprise AI advisory council—But weak profitability across the sector casts a shadow. Zensar delivered well, but the overhang from shrinking discretionary spends in the West remains. Cyient missed the mark again. We pointed to what the headline IT numbers don’t tell you and said, “Overall consensus is that downside risks from here onwards are limited. But as discretionary spending continues to languish amid an uncertain macroeconomic and geopolitical environment, revenue-growth can remain muted for the next few quarters.”

Among defence stocks, Ideaforge, too, will need more than order wins—It must execute flawlessly to avoid becoming just another tech promise.

But another, deeper undercurrent now shapes the future of all industries: technology. Recent stories on AI paint a stark picture. This FT piece details how traditional industrial work—like shipbuilding—is being redefined by immersive technology and automation, with productivity gains outpacing human adaptation.

This moment calls for clarity. Investors can no longer rely on macro tailwinds alone; policy easing and liquidity help, but structural winners will be those aligned with long-term shifts. Technology will reorder the value pyramid. The capital of tomorrow will flow to firms that adapt, digitise, and deliver—not just on earnings, but on productivity, agility, and foresight. As William Gibson wrote, “The future is already here—it’s just not evenly distributed.”

That is a perfect opening for the song of the week, ‘Mama, I’m Coming Home’ by the legendary Ozzy Ozbourne. The opening lines illustrate the profound changes that we are seeing:

‘Times have changed and times are strange

Here I come, but I ain't the same..’

It's a deeply emotional tune that contrasts beautifully with his heavy metal persona, and in the wake of his death this week, it resonates even more. Rest in power, Ozzy.

Cheers,

Manas Chakravarty

In case you missed them, here are some of the other stories and insights we published this week, apart from our technical picks in the equity, commodity, and forex markets:

Stocks
Weekly Tactical Pick: Why this IT service major deserves a look, post correction; Shanti Gold International IPO: Will it glitter on the bourses? Mas Financial Q1: Steady show in challenging times; Bikaji Q1FY26: Slow but steady margin comeback; Nestle Q1 FY26: Look past the margin blip to spot the promising underlying growth; Tata Consumer Q1 FY26: Stable revenue, profit growth despite margin headwinds; Dr Reddy’s: Near-term growth outlook is opaque; JSW Steel eyes rebound in Q2 after margin-led Q1 profit surge; Can CEAT regain margin traction after Q1 FY26?

Markets
New CEOs are driving stock surge across India Inc with a 75 percent success rate; majority sees MF stake rise; Trouble in pension fund paradise; Are cryptos, gold a must in portfolios? As inflation eases, time to reposition your bond strategy?

Financial Times
Beware the dangers lurking in private credit; Google earnings keep Silicon Valley’s AI flywheel spinning; Why is it so hard to replace HSBC’s Mark Tucker? ‘Fiscal populism’ is coming for central banks; UBS’s forex fumble is a sign of things to come

Companies and sectors
A Cavity Emerges in Colgate’s earnings; For United Breweries, premiumisation is yielding gradual profit margin benefits; Why e-commerce is a feared force in metro FMCG markets; Weak profitability at IT companies should worry investors; Private banks’ Q1 FY26 numbers reflect caution, restraint; A welcome relief for thermal power producers; Mi CASA, Su CASA: The shifting tides of deposits among banks; Insurance industry hits the brakes as motor, health segments lose steam; SAIL’s Dubai office should be part of its globalisation drive, not just another outpost; The contrasting fortunes of ultra-luxury housing sales in Singapore and India have a message

Economy & PolicyLet the Dragon breathe energy into India’s manufacturing! India should lead climate change fight after US U-turn; Pro Economic Tracker

Geopolitics & Geoeconomics
Can Trump turn the G20 clock back?

Tech & Startups
The race for AI browser supremacy

Low vacancies power investments in data centres

Paytm walks away from DLG: Why fintech major is ditching guarantees in lending for good

India to set up 100 qubit superconducting quantum computing facility for institutions, researchers