Market discounting BJP win in Maharashtra Assembly Election

Market discounting BJP win in Maharashtra Assembly Election

As markets made a dramatic comeback today after seven straight weeks of correction, shaking off a turbulent week dotted with bad news, experts attributed the rally to traders discounting a win for the BJP-led Mahayuti in the Maharashtra Assembly Elections.

According to market experts, the Adani bribery case weighed on sentiment yesterday, preventing the market from factoring in a probable BJP-led Mahayuti win as suggested by exit polls. Today’s rebound, however, indicates the market has moved past the Adani issue and is looking ahead. “The markets did not react to the exit poll results yesterday as they were overshadowed by the Adani news. Today’s rally shows the markets are reacting, and perhaps overreacting, to the exit poll verdict,” said Rohit Srivastava of Indiacharts.

A poll of polls projects the ruling Mahayuti retaining power in Maharashtra, with at least five exit polls predicting a majority for the BJP-led alliance. Two polls, however, suggest a closer contest, with the possibility of a hung Assembly. Projections so far indicate 151 seats for the Mahayuti, 129 for the Maha Vikas Aghadi, and 8 for others. Results for all 288 seats will be announced on November 23.

While a BJP win would likely boost sentiment, experts caution against overestimating its market impact. “There are far too many variables at play,” an analyst noted, citing the Ukraine conflict, US bond yields (which have paused their rise), and ongoing foreign investor selling as key factors to monitor.

India emerged as one of the biggest gainers among global equity markets today, with frontline indices surging over 2%. The day marked the strongest performance in five months. Traders added that the rally was also partly driven by short-covering. Both the Sensex and Nifty logged their most significant single-day gains since June 7, advancing 2% each.