Macquarie hikes target price on Bharti Airtel stock to Rs 2,050; bull case target at Rs 2,350

In the bull-case scenario, Bharti Airtel shares can touch Rs 2,350.

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26 Aug, 2025 12:21

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Shares of Bharti Airtel Ltd rallied sharply as international brokerage Macquarie hiked its target price on the telecom player as the odds for the brokerage's bull case on Airtel have improved.

Macquarie lifted its one-year price target by 14 percent to Rs 2,050 per share, as the brokerage saw  improving odds of its bull-case, wherein shares can touch Rs 2,350. The brokerage noted that Bharti Airtel shares feature in its India Super 6s as a core idea.

The brokerage moved to a scenario weighted approach to better capture optionality. "We increase our one-year price target to Rs 2,050. At a consolidated level our target price implies a four percent FCF yield."

Macquarie has a fundamentally positive view on the India telecom sector. "We see an effective industry tariff put, higher FCF, and improving ROIC outlook - a dynamic that has been materially supportive for our preferred fundamental idea Bharti Airtel. Following strong outperformance in the shares, we revisit our bull-bear risk-reward," said the brokerage.

At 2 pm, Bharti Airtel shares were quoting Rs 1,879.8, higher by 2.1 percent compared to the previous session's close on the NSE.

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In its base case, Macquarie assumes an 11 percent ARPU increase to Rs 290 per share for FY27, compared to a Rs 45 increase in FY25. "Our base case fair value improves to Rs 1,920, explained in equal parts by higher mobile multiple and lower net debt."

In the bull case, the ARPU could increase to Rs 300 per share, which is a 22 percent increase compared to 22 percent exit in FY25. According to Macquarie's bear case, even if the ARPU increase is modest, to Rs 275 by FY25, it would result in a fair value of Rs 1,450 per share for Bharti Airtel shares. The bull case has a 40 percent probability of playing out, while the probability for the bear case is around 10 percent.

According to the brokerage, Bharti Airtel's share price can remain supported by bullish tariff expectations. Further, in an "expensive-on-high-expectations" broader India portfolio context, the brokerage noted strong visibility for Bharti's earnings trajectory.

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