Consumption isn't slowing, but market share is shifting, says Vikas Khemani of Carnelian

Khemani said that one should look beyond conventional narratives. Instead of simply assuming that consumption is slowing or that corporate capex is stagnant, says one should do a deeper analysis.

Consumption is not slowing down; rather, market share is shifting, said Vikas Khemani, founder of Carnelian Asset Management and Advisors at the PMS Bazaar event in Mumbai.

Khemani argues that while overall consumption remains robust, with sectors like real estate and cable services continuing to grow, certain industries are witnessing a shift in market share. For instance, while tile companies' sales appear stagnant, this indicates that market share is moving toward unorganised players. "Tile companies won't come out and say they're losing market share," he said.

He also said that the capital expenditure isn't slowing down.

He said that,  traditionally, the health of the capex cycle was gauged by bank credit growth to corporates, which has slowed down.

However, Khemani said that the landscape has changed, with capex now being funded more through equity than borrowing. Companies are expanding their capacities without taking on additional debt, and their order books are growing, he says.

Khemani said that one should look beyond conventional narratives. Instead of simply assuming that consumption is slowing or that corporate capex is stagnant, says one should do a deeper analysis.

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