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After rallying 10% from lows of 10,400, Nifty likely to head towards 11,440

Amid volatility in the market, the Nifty believes to crawl towards resistance of 11,440 which is 200% price projection of previous fall from 10,929 to 10,417 over the short-term

August 05, 2018 / 09:53 IST
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    Amid volatility in the market, the Nifty believes to crawl towards resistance of 11,440, which is 200 percent price projection of previous fall from 10,929 to 10,417 over the short-term, Rupak De, Technical Analyst, Bonanza Portfolio, said in an interview with Moneycontrol’s Kshitij Anand.

    Indian markets scaled fresh record highs this week but we lost momentum in the second half. Do you see profit booking at higher levels and should investors bring down their long positions?

    Yes, the Indian markets witnessed a decent rally over the last few weeks which led Nifty to scale a record high. From the low of around 10,400, it went all the way up to make a new high of 11,390 which is almost 10 percent gain from the previous swing low of 10,417 on the daily frame.

    However, the index found resistance at the upper band of the rising channel on the daily chart, which led to a price consolidation towards the end of this week.

    Amid volatility in the market, the Nifty believes to crawl towards resistance of 11,440 (which is 200 percent price projection of the previous fall from 10,929 to 10,417) over the short-term.

    We expect profit booking in the market once Nifty reaches 11,440-11,500, from where 4-5 percent correction is likely to happen. Therefore, the investor should use higher levels to reduce their long positions.

    Small and midcap stocks have also picked up momentum which was not visible in earlier rallies. Do you think the recovery has begun in this space?

    Mid and Small caps stocks are witnessing a smart recovery, which is expected to continue for few more weeks. Both the Nifty Midcap-100 as well as Nifty Small Cap-100 Indices has given a bullish breakout on the daily chart.

    Buying is likely to continue in the mid and small cap space. Especially, midcap stocks are likely to outperform the large-cap as well as small-cap stocks over the short-term. However, we need to wait for a confirmation of a complete trend reversal in the sector.

    Which sectors are looking to lead the rally and which are looking laggards?

    We expect the recent rally in the PSU banks, pharma, FMCG and metal stocks will continue over the short term whereas media stocks may see a decent recovery over the new few weeks as the index seems to have bottomed out for the short-term. On the other hand, auto and IT stocks will continue to see some consolidation going forward.

    Top three-five stocks which investors can look at with a holding period of 1 months?

    Here is a list of top three stocks which could give 6-12% return in 1 months:

    ZEE Ltd: CMP: Rs 520.60| Buy| Target: Rs. 573| Stop Loss: Rs. 498| Return: 10%

    After a steep correction, the stock has been consolidating around the support of a rising trendline on the daily chart. In addition to that, on the weekly chart, a Bullish Harami candlestick pattern is formed which may propel a rally in the stock.

    The stock is in a long-term uptrend and is currently trading around the lower band of the rising channel; we expect demand in stock may return over the short-term.

    Jubilant FoodWorks Ltd: Buy| CMP: Rs 1,451.50 | Target: Rs. 1,550| Stop Loss: Rs. 1,404| Return: 6.80%

    In its previous fall from the all-time high of Rs 1,499 to 1375, the stock has retested its 200-double exponential moving average (DEMA).

    In the recent price action, the stock has given a downward consolidation pattern breakout which shows the growing optimism in the stock. Also, the price has retraced back around 62% of the previous fall from 1499 to 1375.

    The current pattern and indicators are suggesting a continuation of the recovery in the stock price.

    APL Apollo Tubes Ltd: Buy| CMP: Rs 1,699.25| Target: Rs. 1,900| Stop Loss: Rs. 1,597| Return: 12%

    The stock, which was consolidating for the last several days, has come out with a closing above its recent range high indicating a growing optimism in the stock. Price has closed significantly above 21 EMA for the first time since last May.

    Moreover, positive divergence in the daily RSI (14) may induce bullishness in the stock. Overall, the technical set is suggesting a decent recovery on the stock.

    Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment expert on moneycontrol.com are his own and not that of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

    Kshitij Anand
    Kshitij Anand is the Editor Markets at Moneycontrol.
    first published: Aug 5, 2018 09:53 am

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