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Oil heads for biggest weekly drop since May on Greece

Brent crude was steady near USD 114 on Friday as investors assessed the impact of the Greek debt crisis on risk aversion, which has taken almost 4% off prices this week in the biggest drop since early May.

June 17, 2011 / 13:37 IST

Brent crude was steady near USD 114 on Friday as investors assessed the impact of the Greek debt crisis on risk aversion, which has taken almost 4% off prices this week in the biggest drop since early May.


The euro slipped, with markets still unconvinced that Greece could dodge a default even after appearing to secure a round of near-term funding.


Brent crude for August slipped 5 cents to USD 113.97 a barrel by 0409 GMT, while US crude benchmark West Texas Intermediate was unchanged at USD 94.95.


US data over the week showed the economy of the world's top oil consumer continued to sputter in the second quarter, but also offered evidence the recovery was on course to regain momentum as the year progresses.


"Demand is not so bad and is steadily increasing in the developing countries and supply will tighten in the second half of the year, but everyone is fearful about the euro financial crisis, especially in Greece," said Ken Hasegawa, a commodity derivatives manager at Japan's Newedge brokerage.


The International Energy Agency on Thursday raised the pressure on OPEC to increase output by forecasting a steep rise in oil demand later this year and predicting the strain on supply would last over the medium term.


The Paris-based IEA raised its assessment of how much OPEC oil would be needed this year by 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 30.1 million bpd in a monthly report.


US Mid-Atlantic factory activity contracted in June to a near two-year low, overshadowing better than expected readings on the nation's labor and housing markets.

Brent VS WTI


Brent's premium to US crude WTI slipped to USD 19 a barrel on Thursday, after hitting a record USD 23.34 on Wednesday, when the July contract expired.


"While WTI distortions have been a key market driver in 2010, there has been little in the way of new fundamental catalysts to warrant the ballooning out of that spread to such extreme values," Barclays Capital analysts headed by Paul Horsnell said.


"In an oversupplied US market, the need to import Brent is all but gone, and, hence, the WTI-Brent spread is rendered meaningless."


Crude trading volumes for both contracts were on track to finish well below or just in the vicinity of 30-day averages.


Oil prices will stay above USD 100 a barrel in the next year as supply worries outweigh concerns about flagging global economic growth, a Reuters survey of oil industry officials, executives and traders showed.


Eight of 20 participants in the Reuters Energy and Climate Summit said they saw oil trading between USD 110 and USD 130 a barrel in June 2012, eight saw prices between USD 90 and USD 100 and three saw prices above USD 130. Only one respondent saw prices between USD 70 and USD 90 per barrel.


A failure by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to boost output last week, despite calls from the West to help protect economic growth, has fueled debate over whether OPEC and leading member Saudi Arabia have enough spare capacity to open the taps if demand rises and prices spike.


Saudi Arabia is expected to raise output towards 10 million barrels a day (bpd) this month, sources said earlier this week, up from 8.86 million bpd in May.


The IEA stands ready to release strategic reserves of crude oil to ensure adequate supply and support the global economy, Executive Director Nobuo Tanaka said on Thursday.


"While there is a growing perception that near term oil supplies will be adequate either through an OPEC or IEA response, we reiterate our concern that such confidence could prove ephemeral, and the arrival of adequate supplies is far from guaranteed," said JP Morgan analysts led by Lawrence Eagles.


The number of crude oil tankers booked from the Middle East has surged 15% to a multi-year high this month due to an increase in Saudi Arabian exports, shipbrokers said on Friday.


Around 130 Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) -- most bound for refineries in Asia -- have been contracted out for June, up from around 113 the previous month and the highest since at least August 2005.

first published: Jun 17, 2011 12:04 pm

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