NSDL shares likely to list with 17% premium as GMP surges; here's a post-listing strategy

NSDL shares likely to list with 17% premium as GMP surges.

NSDL shares are expected to list with a premium of around 17 percent over the issue price, as the grey market premium (GMP) for the company’s stock has surged ahead of the stock listing on August 6.

The GMP for NSDL shares has seen some fluctuations and is currently around Rs 135, indicating a potential listing gain of approximately 17 percent over the upper price band of Rs 800.

"The market is valuing NSDL favourably beyond the IPO price, driven by optimism about its long-term growth," noted Bhavik Joshi, Business Head, INVasset PMS.

Market participants said that investors should consider holding the stock for the long term, given NSDL’s strong fundamentals and leadership in the depository segment.

NSDL IPO allotment today: How to check status on registrar, BSE and NSE; check latest GMP

The National Securities Depository Ltd (NSDL) initial public offer (IPO), which was open for subscription from July 30 to August 1, received an overall subscription of 41 times in the primary market. The price band for the issue was fixed at Rs 760-800 per share.

Prashanth Tapse, Senior Vice President (Research Analyst) at Mehta Equities Ltd, said, "Despite volatility in broader markets in recent weeks, NSDL IPO witnessed strong investor interest, led by Qualified Institutional Buyers (QIBs) and Non-Institutional Investors (NIIs), while retail participation remained decent compared to other recent IPOs."

He said the robust demand reflects NSDL’s dominant position in the Indian depository ecosystem, particularly in custodial and depository services for mutual funds, insurance companies, banks, and foreign portfolio investors (FPIs).

"NSDL continues to lead in value-based transactions and institutional account holdings, backed by strong industry trust and technological infrastructure. Alongside CDSL, it operates in a near-duopoly, with high entry barriers for new players," Tapse added.

He expects the stock to list with gains in the range of 12-15 percent or higher, depending on market sentiment on the listing day. "For investors allotted shares, it is advisable to hold from a long-term perspective. Non-allotted investors can wait for any post-listing dip to enter," he said.

Joshi added that the IPO attracted significant demand, being fully subscribed within hours of opening. "The strong response across categories reflects investor confidence in NSDL’s pivotal role in India’s capital market infrastructure," he said.

He highlighted that NSDL posted a 22.3 percent rise in net profit to Rs 343 crore in FY25, with an EBITDA margin of 32.1 percent. "Managing over Rs 510 lakh crore in assets and servicing nearly 3.94 crore demat accounts, NSDL’s market dominance underscores its importance in India’s capital markets," Joshi added.

Narendra Solanki, Head Fundamental Research - Investment Services, Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers, added "NSDL earns steady revenues via custody and maintenance fees from issuers and depository participants. At the upper price band company is valuing at P/E of 46.6x to its FY25 earnings, and market cap of Rs 1,60,000 million with Return on net worth of 17.1% post issue of equity shares. Investors may continue to hold the issue as a Long term view on IPO according to their risk appetite."

Given that the IPO is entirely an Offer for Sale (OFS), NSDL will not receive any proceeds from the issue.

The listing of NSDL on August 6 will make it the second depository to be publicly traded in India after Central Depository Services Ltd (CDSL), which was listed in 2017.

NSDL is a Sebi-registered market infrastructure institution offering a range of services to India’s financial and securities markets. It pioneered the dematerialisation of securities in India in November 1996 following the Depositories Act of 1996.

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