RBI survey projects FY17 GVA at 7.8%

Professional forecasters expect real Gross Value Added at basic price (GVA) to increase to 7.8 percent in the next fiscal from 7.4 percent expected in 2015-16, says a RBI survey released today. Output growth, measured using GVA, is likely to improve marginally in 2015-16 and further in 2016-17 and quarterly growth projections for the next five quarters indicate that growth is likely to peak in July-September period of 2016-17. "Forecasters expect real GVA at basic price to increase by 7.4 percent in 2015-16 (and) in 2016-17, GVA is expected to increase by 7.8 percent, led by growth in 'services' by 9.3 percent," the survey result posted by the RBI said.

GVA is an internationally accepted measure to gauge economic activity in a country. The Central Statistical Office (CSO) will release estimates of GDP and GVA on Monday. CPI or retail inflation is likely to remain below 6 per cent till third quarter of 2016-17.

Medium-term growth and inflation expectations remained unchanged from the levels indicated in the last round of the survey. The wholesale price based inflation is expected to turn positive from the fourth quarter of 2015-16 and increase to 3 per cent in the third quarter of 2016-17. The rupee is expected to remain stable against the US dollar in the near future, said the survey.

"Indian rupee is expected to remain within the range of Rs 67 to Rs 68 per USD till third quarter of 2016-17," it added. Twenty four professional forecasters participated in the latest survey round (Round 38) conducted in January 2016, the RBI said.