Poor monsoon likely to hit 2015-16 kharif output by 1.78%

Declining for the fourth consecutive year, India's foodgrain production is projected to drop by 1.78 percent to 124.05 million tonnes in the 2015-16 kharif season due to poor monsoon and drought-like situation in some states like Karnataka.

Foodgrain output was 126.31 million tonnes (MT) in the kharif (summer) season of the 2014-15 crop year (July-June). The country had achieved a record 131.27 MT foodgrain production in 2011-12.

Releasing the first advance estimates for the 2015-16 kharif crops, the Agriculture Ministry said, "The cumulative rainfall during the current monsoon season has been deficient by 15 percent, i.e. higher than rainfall deficit of 12 percent in 2014-15."

As a result, the kharif production of rice, coarse cereals and pulses, which are part of foodgrain basket, is likely to decline this year as compared to the fourth advance estimate of kharif foodgrain output for 2014-15. The Ministry, however, said that these are preliminary estimates and would undergo revision based on feedback from the states.

It releases four estimates before the final one. As per the first estimate, rice output is projected to decline to 90.61 MT in the 2015-16 kharif season against 90.86 MT in the same season previous year. Similarly, coarse cereals production is likely to drop to 27.88 MT from 29.82 MT, while the pulses output is projected to fall to 5.56 MT from 5.63 MT in the said period.

Among pulses, production of tur is estimated to decline to 2.61 MT in the 2015-16 kharif season from 2.71 MT, but urad production is projected to increase to 1.37 MT from 1.27 MT in the period under review.

"In last few days, monsoon rains have revived in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Telangana that will improve the prospects of pulses production," Agriculture Secretary Siraj Hussain told PTI. Interestingly, oilseeds production is likely to increase to 19.89 MT in 2015-16 kharif season from 18.32 MT in the year-ago period.