COP26: As Glasgow Summit reaches finale, both challenges and opportunities intensify

(Image: Reuters)

As the 26th UN Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP26) in Glasgow comes to an end, battlelines have sharpened and nations remain locked in their positions as the world waits for a definitive action plan to counter global warming.

Despite a series of multilateral agreements – from reducing investments in coal and eliminating deforestation to cutting methane emissions – an overall consensus on reducing carbon emissions and ensuring climate finance have hit a dead end, officials at the summit told Moneycontrol.

As the last working day of the conference started, COP26 president Alok Sharma said a final text is coming soon. The Indian-origin British minister in overall charge of the talks has stressed many times over the past few days that in-principle acceptance of issues such as carbon emission reduction and climate finance have never been as widespread as now.

The final agreement is expected to be released at the end of the working day on November 12 (late Friday night India time). Before that, Moneycontrol takes a look at the stumbling blocks and opportunities towards key goals:

Climate finance: The biggest issue at COP26 is the question of who will provide the promised $100 billion in annual climate finance. The Glasgow summit began with the intention by all parties to find out how much money should be committed.

All nations now agree that upwards of a trillion dollars – not $100 billion – would be required annually to help poorer nations mitigate and adapt to climate change-led extreme weather events. Also, the issue of who should pay has strengthened.

However, there’s also been unprecedented solidarity among developing nations on the issue at COP26. Members of the Like-Minded Developing Countries (LMDCs) grouping including India, China, Iran, Indonesia, Malaysia, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and others have raised their voices against developing countries not negotiating in ‘good faith.’

Officials said the developed countries have now attempted to shift responsibility to the rest of the world.

“This COP is all about climate finance. This represents the final barrier in the fight against climate change. Almost everything has been proposed and tried. Now, only the money remains to be made available,” said Samrat Sengupta, programme director, climate change and renewable energy, at the New Delhi-based Centre for Science and Environment.

Cutting carbon: At the start of the Glasgow summit, leaders from the US, China and the European Union, among others, announced plans to go carbon-neutral or reach ‘net zero’ status.

The draft agreement calls for ending further coal exploration and production and subsidies for fossil fuel. However, countries including Saudi Arabia stressed that no energy source should be ignored until the economics of alternative energy become steady and sustainable.

In a major move, the draft recognised that limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius by 2100 requires global carbon dioxide emissions to be reduced by 45 percent by 2030 relative to the 2010 level.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi committed India to a 2070 deadline for reaching net zero carbon emission levels. Rather than commit to direct emission cuts, it has chosen indirect promises to focus on renewables.

National commitments: The Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC) are non-binding national plans highlighting climate actions, including climate-related targets for greenhouse gas emission reductions, policies and measures to achieve the global targets set out in the 2015 Paris Climate Accord.

The draft at COP26 aims to update the timeframe for revised targets for countries to next year – much sooner than the requirement of every five years, as laid out in the Paris Climate Accord.

Back then, India had pledged to improve the emissions intensity of its GDP by 33 to 35 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030, increase the share of non-fossil fuel-based electricity to 40 percent by 2030, and enhance its forest cover to absorb 2.5 to 3 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide by 2030. This has been updated at the summit.

Rallying support for renewables: The summit has officially acknowledged the problem of enabling developing countries to bypass fossil fuels and move directly to renewable energy sources as one of the biggest technology transfer challenges in history.

However, the COP has till now not seen any major pledge in this regard. India has chosen to increase installed renewable capacity to 500 GW, meet 50 percent of its energy requirements from non-fossil fuel sources, and bring down the carbon emissions intensity of the economy by 45 per cent from 2005 levels.

As of now, the most promising target had been set by the Small Island Developing States (SIDS). In 2019, they collectively committed to achieving 100 percent electricity generation from renewable sources by 2030.

Multinational efforts: Widely considered to be the highlight in progress of this COP, major multilateral initiatives by large economic powers such as the UK, the European Union, China and the US have taken centre stage.

Till now, there have been four major commitments. These include a global clean-coal initiative by 40 countries and scores of major businesses to end all investments in new coal power generation domestically and internationally, and a pledge by more than 100 countries to cut methane emissions by 30 percent from 2020 levels by 2030.

Led by the UK, more than 100 nations have also sought to halt and reverse deforestation and land degradation by the end of the decade. This includes Canada, Russia, Congo, Indonesia and Brazil, which account for 85 percent of the global forest cover.

More than 27 countries have also laid out new commitments to change their agricultural policies to become more sustainable and less polluting, and to invest in the science needed for sustainable agriculture and to protect food supplies from climate change.