Reliance Industries Q2 preview: Retail, Jio, O2C strength to drive earnings growth

Reliance Industries Ltd is expected to report robust earnings growth in the September quarter (Q2 FY26) on improved refining margins and sustained growth in its consumer businesses, Reliance Retail and Jio.

Net profit is expected to rise 11 percent from a year earlier to about Rs 18,450 crore for the September quarter, according to the median of nine analysts' estimates. RIL's consolidated EBITDA is seen climbing 14 percent to Rs 44,400 crore, supported by gains in the oil-to-chemicals, retail, and digital services businesses.

Reliance Industries Q2 FY26 Results Estimates

Strong refining margins, weak rupee to aid RIL’s O2C earnings

Refining margins have remained firm through the quarter, aided by strong diesel and jet fuel spreads and a weaker rupee, which improves export realisations.

Axis Capital and UBS expect Reliance’s O2C EBITDA to grow over 20 percent YoY, while JPMorgan estimates an even higher growth at 26 percent, supported by better cracks and improved margins. HSBC also forecasts a solid quarter for the O2C segment, citing supportive refining margins and steady overall performance within the energy business.

Brokerages said the O2C segment’s resilience and broadly stable petrochemical spreads are expected to support Reliance’s consolidated performance during the quarter.

Reliance Retail and Jio telecom: Stable growth pillars

Both Reliance Retail and Jio are expected to extend their steady growth momentum. UBS forecasts retail revenue growth of over 13 percent YoY, with grocery and fashion formats leading gains. Axis Capital expects a 13 percent rise in underlying EBITDA and stable margins. J.P. Morgan expects retail performance to remain solid, though slightly moderated by the GST rate cuts on select durables announced in September.

In digital services, UBS and Nomura project around 15-16 percent EBITDA growth on-year, underpinned by continued subscriber additions and modest gains in average revenue per user (ARPU).

Upstream, new energy and long-term triggers

The upstream oil-and-gas segment is projected to remain broadly stable, contributing modestly to overall earnings. Analysts note that the market’s focus will be less on near-term profitability and more on management’s commentary around Reliance’s emerging “Powering AI” ecosystem -- which spans data centres, renewable energy capacity, and partnerships with global technology players such as Meta, Google and NVIDIA.

Brokerages, including Morgan Stanley and HSBC, said that such updates could serve as a positive long-term re-rating trigger for the stock, reinforcing RIL’s positioning in next-generation digital and energy infrastructure, rather than influencing this quarter’s earnings.

Broad consensus: steady earnings, positive stance

Across estimates, brokerages see RIL’s Q2 performance as steady and broad-based. JP Morgan projects 14 percent YoY EBITDA growth and 12 percent profit growth, noting that higher depreciation and interest costs could limit flow-through to the bottom line.

Most houses -- including UBS, Axis Capital, Kotak, HSBC and Morgan Stanley -- maintain Buy or Overweight ratings with target prices ranging from Rs 1,700 to Rs 1,780, reflecting continued confidence in the company’s diversified earnings profile and gradual improvement in its energy-to-consumer mix. Investors will watch the guidance on telecom tariffs, retail momentum and progress on its new-energy initiatives.

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