Indian Oil is likely to see weak performance in second quarter impacted by lower inventory gains. Gross refining margins (GRMs) are likely to be muted as well, brokerages said.
They expect profit in the range of Rs 4,688-5,800 crore.
Brokerage: Emkay | PAT: Rs 5,205.7 crore
The brokerage house expects refinery utilisation, domestic sales volume growth, GRM and marketing margin of 105 percent, 4 percent, $6 per barrel and Rs 4.5 per KT, respectively.
Brokerage: Axis Capital | PAT: Rs 5,600 crore
The brokerage house said that GRM at USD 8 per barrel and 1% increase in refining throughput. We expect Rs 800 crore of inventory gains in marketing business and marketing margin to increase by 5% QoQ.
Brokerage: Kotak Institutional Equities | PAT: RS 4,972.6 crore
The brokerage house expects a sharp QoQ decline in EBITDA despite steady marketing margins reflecting lower adventitious gains and higher forex-related loss.
We assume (1) 2% QoQ increase in crude throughput to 18 million tonnes, (2) 4% YoY growth in sales volumes to 19.8 million tonnes and (3) higher underlying refining margins at $ 4.1/bbl.
Brokerage: Prabhudas Lilladher | PAT: Rs 4,688.5 crore
The company’s earnings could be impacted by lower inventory gains and muted GRMs. Improved marketing earnings and depreciating exchange rate provide downside support.
Brokerage: Motilal Oswal | PAT: Rs 5,800 crore
The brokerage house expects IOC’s earnings to decline YoY, led by lower GRMs and marketing margins in 1QFY19.
It modelled core GRM of USD5.5/bbl and total inventory gains of Rs 2,630 crore for IOC in Q1FY19.
Key issues to watch for
-Utilization of Paradip refinery
-GRM
-Capex plans
-Forex/inventory changes
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