Shree Cement Q4 PAT seen up 40% at Rs 92 cr

Shree Cement is expected to report a growth 40% year-on-year in its profit after tax at Rs 92.4 crore for the fourth quarter of FY12.

In the Q4FY11, the company received a tax credit of roughly Rs 91.7 crore.

Net sales are seen going up by 37% to Rs 1,463.4 crore from Rs 1,070.12 crore year-on-year.    

EBITDA is likely to jump 39% to Rs 412.57 crore from Rs 295.9 crore during the same period.

EBITDA margin is seen improving at 28.2% in January-March quarter of 2012 as against 27.7% in the corresponding quarter of last fiscal.

On quarter-on-quarter basis, net sales are expected to go up by 16.3% and EBITDA is seen going up by 24%. Profit after tax is likely to go up 56% (In Q3FY12, there was a tax credit of roughly Rs 9.41 crore)

Factors to watch out for:

- Sales are likely to grow driven by strong recovery in both cement and merchant power business

- Cement volumes to grow 11% YoY (+12% QoQ) to 3.3 million tonnes (including clinker) and realizations to improve by 4% QoQ (around 20% YoY)

- Merchant power sales would likely to come in higher on a QoQ basis at 587 million units (versus 259 million units in 4QFY11 and 392 million units in 3QFY12)

- But going ahead merchant rates are moderating and power volumes during monsoon will be a challenge

- EBITDA margins are likely to remain flattish with a positive bias:
**Cost push in the form of fuel and freight will dilute the benefit of better cement realizations and higher merchant power volumes
**Resulting in EBITDA margin staying stable with a positive bias sequentially and on a YoY basis