Tata Power Q4 PAT seen down 26% at Rs 487 cr

Country's largest private power producer Tata Power is expected to post a 26% slump in its fourth quarter consolidated net profit at Rs 487 crore, according to a CNBC-TV18 poll. 

Total income is seen going up by 32% to Rs 6,633 crore from Rs 5,016 crore year-on-year.

EBITDA too is likely to go up by 25% year-on-year to Rs 1,507 crore in the quarter ended March 2012.

Operating profit margin is expected to be at 22.73% for January-March quarter of 2012 versus 24.06% in the corresponding quarter of last fiscal and 15.06% in previous quarter.

On quarter-on-quarter basis, power producer is likely to show rise of 85% in profit after tax and 50% in EBITDA.

Expectations

YoY growth in top line due to higher power generation capacity and higher coal production

YoY margins expected to come in lower due to higher fuel costs and cost of power purchased

Need to watch for forex impact on the bottom line, though company did adopt the AS-11 method of capitalizing forex losses

Key factors to watch for –

Stabilization of Unit I of 800MW of the Mundra UMPP project

Management commentary on the possibility of tariff revisions for power sold out of Mundra UMPP

***Current tariff rate of Rs 2.35/kwh and plant needs Rs 2.93/kwh to breakeven at the PBT level

Current capacities and capacity addition plans

Company currently has a total power generation capacity of around 3900MW

Company is in the process of building another 4729MW of additional capacities