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Last Updated : Feb 22, 2017 09:47 AM IST | Source: PTI

Corporate bonds to touch 8.5 trn next fiscal, may grow at 20-22%

"Benefiting from finer pricing in the bond markets, we expect the year-on-year growth of corporate bonds to remain substantial at 20-22 percent in FY18.

Domestic rating agency Icra said corporate bond issuance is likely to grow by 20-22 percent in the financial year 2017-18, with gross issuance rising to Rs 8.5 trillion.

"Benefiting from finer pricing in the bond markets, we expect the year-on-year growth of corporate bonds to remain substantial at 20-22 percent in FY18.

In absolute terms, the gross corporate bond issuance is expected to increase to Rs 8.5 trillion in FY18 from an estimated Rs 7.1 trillion in FY17," ICRA's group head (financial sector ratings) Karthik Srinivasan, told reporters here in a webinar.

He, however, said the gross bond issuance through government securities (G-sec), state development loans (SDL), UDAY bonds and municipal debt will remain stagnant at Rs 10.7 trillion in FY18.

"Although the 10-year g-sec yield has reverted to the level seen before the note ban, SDL yields are now 20 basis points higher than the level recorded in the auction on November 8, 2016, following the announcement in mid-January 2017 of the exclusion of most states from utilising National Small Savings Fund (NSSF) inflows to fund their fiscal deficits," Srinivasan said.

The agency expects bond yields may soften from current levels in the event of a rate cut, higher supply of SDL and corporate bonds may widen their spreads relative to g-sec. Srinivasan said the gross dated borrowings of the government are expected to remain flat at Rs 5.8 trillion in FY18, as indicated in the Union Budget. Icra estimates the gross market borrowings of the state governments to rise by 22 percent from Rs 3.7 trillion in FY17 to Rs 4.5 trillion in FY18, on account of larger fiscal deficits, a spike in debt repayment from FY18 onwards and the exclusion of most states from investing in the NSSF from April 1, 2016.

"While the impact of the NSSF modification would be neutral in terms of aggregate bond issuance, higher supply of SDL would push up their yields, while simultaneously reducing the same for g-sec," Srinivasan said. The report said bond yields have undergone significant volatility since the note ban was announced. With the surge in liquidity after the note ban and the market's expectations of an imminent repo rate cut, yields of g-sec and SDL recorded a substantial decline. (More) PTI HV NRB .

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First Published on Feb 22, 2017 08:58 am
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